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Thursday, October 6, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 October 2011

The sharp rebound off of the falling wedge wave [v] of Minor 1 low confirms that the previous structure was an ending diagonal.

The job of wave 2 is to shake out excess bearish sentiment produced by the previous 5 months of decline.  Today helped that cause.

Minor wave 2 is expected to take the form of a typical wave two 5-3-5 zigzag. 5 waves up, 3 wave corrective, then another 5 waves up.  It is unsure whether the market is seeking to find the top of wave [a] of 2 or just subwave (i) of [a] of 2. If its the latter then we can assume wave (i) is the extended wave of [a] which has been a bear market trait during primary wave [2] from March 2009 to May 2011 in which the first subwave seems to be the extended wave. It may be the case here too.

The NDX however is projected to be a wave two 3-3-5 flat. Hence the index outlines this notion of an extended wave (i).
The SPX hourly: Could be (i) of [a] or if it keeps rising to the 38% Fib in a tight move, we could be looking at an entire wave [a] in and of itself. the only fault in that is that time-wise, it would be a very quick wave [a].

Hence I probably lean toward wave (i) of [a] and that (i) is extended.
Possible squiggle count for the SPX.  We cannot rule out a 50% pullback from near here in a wave (ii) of [a]. 
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