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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 November 2011

The impulsive down look of the market continues. Another quick low tomorrow would be ideal for the squiggle count.

Using the Wilshire 5000 for form but consider the SPX to be identical count:
Some of the discussion I got into last night on the last update was about how the first subwave one of a wave three seeks to advance prices below the previous larger degree wave one. This is a principle that works on all degree of wave structures.

For example if this is Primary wave [3] down of cycle wave c, then the first subwave of P[3] would be Intermediate (1).  Therefore (1) of P[3] should try and advance prices below that of the larger degree P[1] down which ended at 666 SPX.

This principle should also work well with the first subwave Minute [i] of Minor 3 of Intermediate (1). Therefore, Minute [i], in theory, will try and advance prices below that of the previous Minor 1 which was 1074 SPX. If we can extrapolate backwards, we can conclude that the market may be in sub-minuette (i) of Minute [i] of Minor 3.

This SPX hourly chart shows this projection:
Now if this projected pathing takes a wildly different course than that of a 5 wave structure down of some sort, then of course perhaps we may not be in Minor 3 down.  But for now we have to imagine that we are and we'll count it as such until and unless the waves no longer make sense to do so.

DJIA squiggles. Will we have a typical head and shoulders pattern?
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