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Friday, November 11, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 November 2011 [Update 9:30PM]

Update: 9:30PM: Oil. In general, oil can often turn down ahead of equities. 

Primary count is that an [x] wave triangle which connects a double zigzag Minor 2.
SPY shows the gaps. A gap down Monday to close the gap up from today then reversal higher would complete a triangle count. A lower low under (c) busts the triangle and is bearish.
Wilshire weekly:
SPX daily:
Sentiment has corrected quite nicely as predicted for Minor 2. The current Investor's Intelligence bull/bear ratio is 56% from a low of about 42% at the October low.  AAII bull ratio 64% which is approaching a 2011 high.  Bears are at 25% which is near a 2011 low. Doesn't mean the market will turn down right away, but its delightfully in line with what was expected to occur on Minor 2 up.

Looking at a myriad of other Intermediate term sentiment indicators I watch daily also show the same bullish rebound.  There is a bit of room to run higher on some, but they all have adequately rebounded.

SPY volume is the lowest in about 4 months.   We still cannot rule out that a wave (ii) is merely finishing up in some kind of upward flat.
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