Custom Search

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 November 2011

Triangle pattern is still intact on both the e-minis and SPX cash index as of this writing.  However....

Note the big down hourly volume bar in this afternoon's selloff.  If this is a valid (e) wave, sell volume should generally be drying up.  Its seems to have picked up instead.  And TRIN finished only at 1.47 so its not oversold by any means considering we have had record readings lately.

Another thing is E waves in triangles usually are not the "complex" leg.  So the triangle is in serious doubt.
Wilshire used for form:
SPX shows the key price levels for the triangle. Ultimately 1215 SPX pivot is the deal-breaker and bearish if broken through.
Very odd day considering Oil closed up 2.35% and equities closed down over 1.5%.

It takes a lot of nerve to "trust" in this triangle to the upside considering the huge credit stresses occurring in the credit markets. I don't have those kind of balls. I give credit to those that do.

Ultimately the triangle should not produce much more than a zigzag thrust up even if its successful. So I remain ultimately bearish in that Minor 3 down's force should soon be felt no matter what exact price we mark Minor 2 high at.

The bigger picture count must not be forgotten:
blog comments powered by Disqus