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Friday, November 25, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 November 2011

The bleeder bear wave from the 1260's continues.

We'll keep throwing up some squiggle count, but bleeder waves can prove tough to count.

The key is we can see each intra-day bounce is 3 waves, followed by a 5 wave impulse down. The day ended with the downtrend line again intact on the cash index and obeyed.
Best guess squiggle count.   There are certainly many other ways to count this down impulse.  The key, again, is to remember that the primary count is a very large sized wave 3 - either Minor or Intermediate sized - and that its exerting its force.

Downtrend line intact on the SPX....
But cleared on the all-hours e-minis. Pre-market price has held so far.
Recall the bleeder wave that formed Minor 1 of Intermediate (3) back in 2008.   This could be the same situation. Downtrend line was obeyed except for one instance it tried to escape and then got slapped hard back inside with a breakaway gap.
I do not think we have yet to have a "point of recognition" yet for this current bleeder wave. Its obeying the down trend line and its impulsing down in 5 wave moves.

[Update 2:56PM:]
And as far as that bleeder wave in 2008, I like the Wilshire count also:
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