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Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 November 2011 [Update 5:08PM]

[Update 5:08PM: Projected Minor 2 double zigzag count is near the top of the list for possible wave counts for Minor 2. Double zigzag would fulfill time and price requirements for Minor 2.  Note the ZBT day.

Also note it  is drawn from an "ideal" price range where (b) of [x] retraces 100% of (a) of [x] and then 5 waves down to fulfill (c) of [x]. Rarely do flats make an ideal price on its (b) or (c) legs.
ORIGINAL COUNT
Primary count has not changed. It is proposed that the SPX is in wave (b) of an (a) - (b) - (c) flat count for wave [b] - or [x] if you prefer - of Minor 2.

From a resistance and technical standpoint, as I mentioned yesterday, SPY had a gap down that may need to be filled. Today SPY has entered solidly into the gap but it has not closed.

Additionally, 1292-1295 is serious resistance.  Any further price advance toward that area should bring out some heavy selling.

The move up from the 1 November low does not look very impulsive. It does work as an a-b-c complex up for (b) of [x] of 2.  See the wave degree label chart on the left side of the blog if you're confused on wave hierarchy.
1292-1295 range resistance.  Perhaps a red trendline hit at 1284-1286 SPX which should close the SPY gap is a target.

A flat count for wave [b] - or [x] - requires at least 90% retrace and that requires a price of about 1285 SPX minimum for wave (b). A 100% price retrace from the 1215 SPX low would be 1292 SPX of course.

Then a reversal back toward the 1230's would seem to fit a (c) of [x] of 2 wave if thats what we got going.
A triangle is also in the realm of possible counts:
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