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Monday, November 21, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 November 2011

[Update 5:22PM: Trying to determine where a bounce wave ii of (iii) of [i] of 3 down is to occur is very useful indeed.  A wave ii of (iii) is an ideal spot to put on a leveraged short such as an ETF. If you can short in the wave ii of (iii) and you are correct in your counting, you will catch the iii of (iii) down.

From and e-mini standpoint, there is an unclosed gap down from Sunday night.  If there is a bounce in a wave ii of (iii) of [i] of 3 down as I have talked about tonight, I suspect this gap is a strong target.
ORIGINAL POST
I'm taking the position that we'll slap a 2 on the 1292 SPX high and call it Minor 2. From that perspective we attempt to map out sub-waves of Minor 3 down.

Each successive sub-wave one of Minor 3 should try and advance prices lower until we reach a "point of recognition". This proposed spot of intense selling is where wave iii of (iii) of [iii] of 3 unfolds. Its often a breakaway gap.

We are a long ways from that point but we will have "mini" recognition moments prior to that. For instance wave iii of (iii) of [i] of 3 should be its own "uh oh" selloff moment.  It is proposed that we are fast approaching wave iii of (iii) of [i] of 3.

The primary count best guess is today may have bottomed wave i of (iii) of [i] of 3. Therefore a bounce in wave ii (which may have been this afternoon's bounce) and then comes that first mini point of recognition as mentioned in the paragraph above.
From a SPY look:
Hourly chart:
As we zoom out to the daily, you can begin to see the proposed massive trendlines, head and shoulders patterns, base channels and support and such involved. We are talking big waves here.
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