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Monday, December 12, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 December

Obviously last Friday was not the kickoff day for wave (c) of [y].  The double zigzag count for Minor 2 is still intact though.  If there is to be a (c) wave of [y], it is likely approaching sooner rather than later.

The VIX was down despite the big down day for stock prices.  In the past this was usually a bullish development for stock prices.
Market's lower highs string intact. And that may be all that matters. The downtrend line is becoming important.  Another assault might yield a breakthrough. 
Daily shows 20 and 50 DMA.

As in the early 2011 top, we are quickly reaching a point where the "bullish" count of a Minor 2 high above 1292 SPX is coming to an acute head. Either (c) wave of [y] pans out, or not. If not, then look out below because the next best count anyways is a full-fledged Minor 3 down.

Remember, the market has already traced out a 3 wave corrective from 1074-1292 SPX. Price was more than ample. The only factor was "time" was perhaps too quick and thus the market has remained elevated for another entire 6 weeks since that 1292 high.

Time is no longer a factor. The market has remained elevated both sufficiently in price and time at this point. We would however like to "wrap things up in a nice bow" and deliver a textbook double zigzag Minor 2 count that tops out in price anywhere from 1293-1327 SPX. I won't hold my breath though. But for now the market is still above support range so we will again be patient as we have been for over 6 weeks.

Taking the stance of "Lets mark 1292 SPX as Minor 2 and see if it can be beat" has been a winning hand so far overall.
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