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Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 December 2011 [Update 6:45PM]

[Update 6:45PM: :Long time since I charted the dollar. I would have to at this time, place the dollar in a series of 1's and 2's.  Therefore there is room for a pullback wave [ii] to cover the open gap up.  This retrace back would allow - in theory - for equities to finish up their (c) wave up of [y] of Minor 2.

Then after the final wave [ii], there would be an unprecedented steep rise in the dollar to correspond with a steep decline in equities (and the Euro for that matter).
However, public opinion on the dollar is quite high and perhaps due for a correction which would be my wave [ii] back down. Via Sentiment Trader:

If there is a (b) wave to be had in a second zigzag of a double zigzag Minor 2 (target range = 1293-1327 SPX), then today's low should be it.

Intraday, I posted a potential wedge pattern that may have been fulfilled. This wedge pattern would be an ending diagonal triangle pattern that completes wave c of an a-b-c downward flat for wave (b) of [y] of 2.  If this is a valid wedge, we should get confirmation with a very bullish up move tomorrow, i.e.- "kickoff' for wave (c) of [y] of 2.

If the wedge fails to the downside and breaks under major support, then the best count is a series of 1's and 2's down and that is very bearish since the "third of a third" would be coming next.

Technicals and market internals are compatible with a wedge count, hence (b) wave. Down volume ratio has been decreasing on each wave of the wedge down and VIX is actually drifting lower (as in the other day when VIX and SPX was down big).  VIX was also down again today despite the market being lower again.
And today is a Fibonacci 13th day of December.

Market is still above major support:
The only problem is the wedge is just sitting there overnight for everyone to see. Therefore if its obvious....

But we nailed the Minor 1 wedge low as it happened yes?  We'll find out tomorrow.
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