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Friday, December 16, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 December 2011

Looking at the 1 minute SPX chart below you can see that there is buying interest at these levels.   The last 2 days of morning pops were pretty healthy via market internals.  But selling caused each rise to fade.  However taken as a whole, the last 2 days were somewhat constructive for the bulls:  1) They have temporarily stopped the bleeding prices (and perhaps even started wrestling control somewhat)  2) They have managed to finish above or in support range.  
The VIX is also somewhat curious.  Its "settling" down finally after many weeks/months of high agitation. From a bear's point of view, one could say that shows "complacency" and people should take a contrarian view and play short. However that complacency and lack of fear usually translates into higher prices first.  So the  lower VIX readings may be signalling higher prices first before decline.  In other words, Minor 2 would be finishing its job.  From a wave count perspective that would imply wave (c) of [y] of double zigzag Minor 2 to come.

Thats my gut thinking at the moment anyways. Subject to change depending on Monday/Tuesday price action.

Wave action there is overlap everywhere on every index at the squiggle level. EW theory teaches us that we should be wary and that this may be corrective waves at the moment.  And thus a (b) wave of [y].  Again, Monday will be telling and should add much to this puzzle.

Prices have finished at the down trendline. Again this is probably key to prices for Monday.  If bulls can "pop" it at the open again on Monday, they will likely recapture and "break" the down trend line. That is the first step required toward advancing prices higher of course and can be construed as a bullish development.

If prices gap lower Monday under 1209, it can possibly be counted as a 5 wave move from the top.  So Monday's opening holds some meaning to things in my opinion. Price action is everything at this stage.
Being that futures will probably largely determine the opening Monday here is the e-mini chart at the moment. It challenged the downtrend line today but got slapped inside. Its going to have to work sideways Sunday night to get back to the trendline for perhaps another challenge.
SPX Daily: Added a VIX indicator to show how the VIX is making a lower low, yet prices are well off their highs which is a big divergence.  In the past, this can mean higher prices first for the market before complete complacency sets in. We shall see.

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