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Monday, February 28, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 February [Update 5:05PM]

[Update 5:05PM: Breakout in IYR or just overthrow of a huge multi-month wedge?

ORIGINAL POST
The proposed megaphone ending diagonal triangle is still in play.   The move up from 1294 should take the form of an a-b-c structure is a best guess.
Short term count, we have 5 waves up from the 1294 low. We can label this "a". Looking for a confirmed "b" and then "c" may carry prices back toward the recent 1344 high, challenge the gap down, and perhaps a bit beyond to the .618 Fib mark, or 1350 - 1352 area.  We can only guess how much juice this market will have come the first day of the month tomorrow. 

It'll either look genius or foolish.


E-minis

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update 10:50AM]

[Update 10:50AM: I forgot another reason I have to lean toward a megaphone ED pattern is Sentiment Trader's http://www.sentimentrader.com STEM model has reached a very low at the end of Friday.
PRIMARY COUNT:
Barring a wave (iii) down next week, which the market is certainly set up forhttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HCkBZMi7AKg/TWga0f2uvHI/AAAAAAAAIxQ/uxDi4oVArcg/s1600/spx.png the primary count leans toward probably the megaphone ending expanding diagonal triangle pattern I posted Friday.  This is based on a few factors:

1) Friday's market internals were broad-based enough to carry back toward market highs. This is the main reason by far.
2) Too many are calling for a correction. Even the mainstream media mentioned "we have 5 waves down" and expect prices to move to 1275. That really bothers me. I think this sentiment needs to shake back out.
3) Too many wave counters on the same page. Bulls and bears alike calling for more corrective down at the least.
4) Big fat SPX gap down near the highs.
5) Not enough short-term non-confirmations between indexes at the 1344 high.
6) 2 year bull anniversary mark would mark a convenient top.
7) Megaphone ending pattern would be appropriate in which the market, through the HFT's, keep "lurching" upwards at the end. Retail mom and pop will be lured in some more.
8) We need to see EWI all screwed up in their counting before this is over. They don't like megaphone ending count patterns.
9) Dollar may need a tad more down and we should see "death of the dollar" on TIME magazine or something. In other words, headed for complete bearish sentiment. Yet I expect 2008 dollar lows will hold firm.
10) Gold likely needs to stretch its legs toward a proper wave 5 of (5) of [5] high which has not quite occurred yet.
11) We corrected exactly 50 SPX points. Seems a convenient number.
12) VIX gap up gets closed.

These last few items (dollar, gold) may not need to directly correlate with an inverse relation with stock prices. But for now, I threw them in there.
Market internals. Its reasonable to expect, at least at this moment, that the highs will be challenged.
NYAD keeps bouncing at the trend line but sooner rather than later, it won't be able to any more. It just seems like its missing another new high or so.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 February [Update 6:16PM]

[Update 6:16PM: Today's internals were pretty good and barring a bear reversal miracle, it could be that BTFD will work like a charm yet again.  Additionally we have a huge SPX gap down that stands out like a sore thumb. So needless to say, I need a valid count that can take all this into consideration.  I present the megaphone ending diagonal.

This pattern prevailed at the April 2010 high http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S9IBjJJmdcI/AAAAAAAAE8M/oZeYoZfd4gs/s1600/wlsh10.png

It works well as I haven't changed the count that much, the Minute [iii] and [iv] pretty much stays the same. I'll be watching for this pattern.

[Side note EW theory: It used to seem that converging wedges (ending diagonal triangles) marked ending waves. But due to HFT and the fact that converging wedges are widely recognized, perhaps the megaphone pattern is less visible and seemingly more bullish. Thus in this highly-watched and highly computer-controlled market, the expanding ending diagonal is now more common ending pattern than the wedge pattern.]
[Update 4:40PM: NYAD picture. The market has painted the uptrend line since the 2009 low. It seems to think its important.
ORIGINAL POST
Market internals were pretty strong today.  Needless to say, oversold readings are no more in the short term oscillators.

I'll count with the idea in mind that P[3] has started.  The bull count? Not P[3].

Wave two challenging the blue box "breakaway" area. Of course if it can re-take this area and hold as support, we likely challenge the old highs.
Another variation says the same thing basically.

Important point is that if this is a wave (ii) up, then it needs to reverse hard in a wave (iii) down early next week.

The Wilshire ended on its high breaking up out of a triangle.

E-minis [Update 1:46PM]

[Update 1:46PM; Switching gears, say what you will about the equity counts, I have been pretty darn good on the long bond yield count.  And patient with the dollar count and Gold for that matter.]

[Update 1:35PM: From a 30 Minute Wilshire 5000 chart, you can see it reached the blue box area. Resistance lies just above (or around 1324 SPX)
[Update 1:22PM: Updated wave (ii) expanded flat potential. Heading toward the virgin wave space.  Its a pretty broad-based rally though with up issues ratio near 80%

[Update 11AM:  For a brief moment, we have a beautiful wave count - expanded flat (ii). But its likely a pipe dream for bears as we will soon find out.  But it looked so good, I had to post it.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 February

EW theory is about applying the guidelines of wave formation, sentiment, and technical measures into a primary count.  The best count is one that applies the most guidelines.

I have a squiggle chart utilizing the SPX and lets review the guidelines for why I have it labeled the way I do:

1. Channeling.  It channels fairly nice and wave v stops almost in the middle which is typical.

2. Sharp wave two.  Very distinct wave ii in this case. Previous selloffs in the last few weeks lack this characteristic.

3.  A breakaway wave iii.  In this case the subwaves count nicely in my "virgin wave box" as a third of a third wave.

4. Selling most intense in the suibwave [3] of iii. This too is an ideal situation. Thats why I mentioned the other night that selling had intensified at the close (meaning more selling to come at least for a wave five)

5. Fibonacci expansion ratios.  Wave iii expanded a nice 1.78 times wave i.  Wave v almost exactly equals wave i making the ratios very ideal.

6. Selling pressure subsided on wave v down versus what was in wave iii and fear (VIX) was lessened. (However sentiment measures should be most extreme at the wave v low which I am sure they were)

7. Wave iv alternation from wave ii. I labeled it an expanded flat particularly since [B] of iv was a three wave move. I also figured the wave iii low was a "thrust" move out of the sub-triangle.

8. Technical divergence (MACD, RSI, etc) on the wave v low and non-confirmations by other indexes.

9. (added) Check out the Fib alignment. 38% at wave iv high, 62% at wave i low.  
I'll have more later.

E-minis

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 February [Update 8:16PM]

[Update 8:16PM: China
[Update 7:15PM: IYR's proposed ED pattern wedge. This chart and the CAC http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2JYVNAjsgjA/TWRgss1Sr2I/AAAAAAAAIvw/5KUvBjS7EDA/s1600/cac.png and others suggests the worldwide markets are in for a very bearish selloff.

If it doesn't come to pass then so be it. However huge potential ED patterns such as the CAC are not to be lightly.  Europe's banks are under tremendous pressure and France is the bagholder perhaps.

ORIGINAL POST
The Wilshire and DOW charts below shows perhaps the squiggles best in that it seems to be an impulse move from the top.

Can we expect a quick wave (ii) bounce to the blue area which coincides with the 50% Fib marker?  Not predicting it, but if it happened it  would certainly be a normal oversold wave (ii) bounce area.
INDU
Wilshire trendline broken under
The Wilshire monthly shows the market is still outside the upper Bollinger Band..
Lest I be accused of a permabear with blinders, I am very keen on keeping an eye on the top alternate and bullish count. Only time will tell. It  certainly has validity to the count.
NYAD has not retreated very far at all compared to market prices. That can be considered bullish. Its at the channel line though.

E-minis

Despite the bearish day yesterday, the market has not broken through key supports or pivots just yet.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 February [Update 9:15PM]

[Update 9:15PM: I see many were looking for a sustained dollar move up today however I was not.  I am uncertain about the dollar near-term but I still like my count on futures as the best thing going for now.

My count has the dollar moving down to a wave [ii] low between the 2 red parallel lines. Thats about the best guess I can make at the moment. Will that mean new equity highs? Not necessarily of course.]
The bigger picture is even more muddier.  But it is universally known that the dollar is going to be worthless yes?  And yet its still above lows from 3 years ago.  

I would not be surprised to see it go into the ALT:[2] or (2) range in the chart below but I expect it to hold above the 2008 lows. Prechter has the [1] up as a cycle wave I. Now if we go into my [2] range, that could very well be a cycle wave II down instead of primary. But thats a moot point we can determine far off into the future.

It is interesting though that dollar sentiment long-term is reaching a low on what could be a wave [1]-[2], (1)-(2) setup just how its supposed to be.  A big final move down in the dollar may give gold a turbo-boost toward $1500 and maybe even that $1550+ mark as I have been anticipating http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FxUY3AHZkDI/TV6xrUUAhAI/AAAAAAAAIsQ/CoHdXqM1a0I/s1600/gold.png
[Update 8:20PM: French CAC. Price action is not impulsive. Smacks more of an ED pattern. We'll find out soon enough as you know the guideline with ED's is they retreat in price very fast to below where the ED pattern started. That would be the (B) wave price.

And bank runs are inherently "Ponzi moments".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/korean-bank-run-spreading-eighth-bank-closes-following-massive-withdrawals   ]
[Update 6:16PM: NASDAQ100 comparison to the Composite.  This is still a major non-confirmation in progress although I don't ever see this mentioned much as a bearish factor. It is for as long as it lasts.
[Update 4:52PM: NYAD. Right or wrong, the count has guided us well for the past 6 months.  But again, if its correct, it needs to confirm. A solid break of the 2 year uptrend channel would be a good start.
[Update 4:40PM: Here is a simple chart showing the proposed Intermediate wave (C). You can see the top alternate count on it.
ORIGINAL POST
I have been proposing that Minute wave [v] from the 1275 pivot to the 1344 high was an extended wave five structure.  http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ANpiuZiIjEE/TWF2oZw1xKI/AAAAAAAAIt0/ZTssYzvvpQo/s1600/wilshire+alt.png  I wasn't sure the exact count but figured it was getting close http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XT3ZzBLBzQ4/TWF2ibZHFtI/AAAAAAAAItw/HLU2_uTED3g/s1600/wilshire5000.png  perhaps with an eye on the .618 Fib target for wave (C) related to (A).

An extended wave five, like an ending diagonal triangle, results in market exhaustion. And like an ED count, once extended wave fives finish, they usually produces a quick price collapse back to under from where the extended wave five started in this case under 1275. So far so good.   We await what prices may do in the next few days to confirm.   (It is one reason we look for such structures along with ED counts because they can be a very profitable short-term trade that produces reliable minimal targets.)


So the move down today appears to be a new structure and not a related wave to the proposed wave [v] up, at least for now  Question is, is it corrective? And if so to what degree?  If its corrective my top count would be we have seen Minor 3 of (C) high and this is Minor 4 likely to last a few weeks minimum.

Down volume ratio and decliners ended the day on an accelerated note.  Selling intensity a bit higher than the last correction.
Proposed SPX count. 
Of course the primary count has P[3] beginning.  Yeah, yeah, I know. Well we have a  near perfect Fibonacci ratio met between (C) and (A) so we'll roll with it for now.  The top ALT is listed on the charts above.

E-minis [Update 3:17PM]

[Update 3:17PM: Tweaking the oil chart.]

Thats a pretty decent impulse down at the moment.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update 8:27PM]

[Update 8:27PM:

A LOOK AT THE SUPER CYCLE CHANNEL AGAIN
EWI has noticed what I had noticed over a year ago - http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/04/weekend-charts-and-stuff.html that the market seemed to be backtesting the supercycle upper channel line.  But Prehcter's recent EW Theorist had their channel in a slightly differing angle than I had mine. Lets face it, channels can be tricky. I went back to check and found out that I hadn't used a channel tool at all but instead 2 parallel lines....ugghh!

So I re-did the channel using the channel tool. And well, EWI and Prechter I think is correct on their placement of the channel. It was a bit higher than mine in time. Here is the channel basically that I re-drew and for your viewing pleasure, reproduced it here.

1.  Complete count:
2. Here is how it touches the I and II
3. How it touches III and IV
4. How the P[2] low in the early 1980's breaks under in a false break.
5. How it broke above in 1996, the beginning of my Advance/Decline NYAD weekly chart by the way and when the credit bubble really accelerated.
6. Interacting with it at the 2002-2003 low periods.
7. P[1] break away from the line in 2008.
8. And the current marker.  We are about there indeed.
CONCLUSION:
Although I am convinced my line was felt that I was tracking, I think it could be just a lower Fib fan line and not the true channel line. 

I really like the new placement of the channel lines and it makes more sense as the P[1] crash occurred from this new position when it could not retake the line.  I also like how the 2002-2003 closing marks and false break under align. I think EWI and Prechter are correct and we are upon the true upper supercycle channel line.

[Update 7:50PM: 
TOP TICK IN CORPORATE GLOBALIZATION?
I am certainly no wizard in examining corporate earnings and a corporate balance sheet. My realm is more social mood and waves. However I do have some breezy opinions I'd like to share because, well this is my blog and at the moment I have been thinking of this stuff a lot so I need to get it out. Besides I naturally think it is all intertwined.

It is obvious that the globalization that occurred in the 1980's, 1990's and 2000's has finally paid off big time for the corporations who took advantage of moving operations to cheaper labor markets.  The bull market in worldwide social mood from the 1980's onward encouraged corporations to move key manufacturing and services operations into overseas countries even if the markets were not strong democracies or even Communist countries such as China. 

This is not to dismiss of course technological advancements allowing greater productivity which had a major role to play. But lets face it, Apple is making a fortune via cheap Chinese labor who were willing to pollute themselves at a terrible cost.  How much control does Apple really have over their products when they are solely reliant on obedient and abundantly cheap Chinese labor?  Or a "stable" political system that promises not to attack Taiwan? These conditions cannot last forever naturally and one can only guess at the shelf life of it all.

Now that the bear market has arrived in the 2000's (and has yet to really warm up in my opinion) it is ironic that after all that  effort corporations took into moving operations overseas and to farm out other services may not look so good in a global bear market that is finally producing some political unrest and uncertainty in both expected and likely unexpected places. If Egypt fell, what would stop any other country? We are seeing that question answered rather quickly.

Its a cruel fate almost.  And the process to move operations back to the shores of America in the case of American corporations has already begun whether anyone realizes it or not.  The "globalization" effort may have reached top tick. It will be a long arduous road to get the United States back to where we were in manufacturing as we once were but my gut tells me we have likely started a long road to get back even if no one has started to actively think about it just yet. Such is the power of social mood theory.

Think this is crazy talk? Well I sure hope you do. For if no one can see it coming, then the better it may be that it will come to pass. And all this relates to the social mood bear market.  The revolutions occurring are likely to not be a very smooth affair.   And if this is a Grand Supercycle wave (a), we can expect they will get worse and many wars break out (this is what happens in a bear market of this degree). We can also see just how rotten the foundations were all along when given a small push. There is a lot of rot in the world and all it may take is a push. And naturally I think a lot of upheaval is in store to include the U.S and other parts of the Western world.

But back to the de-constructing of globalization.  We have seen deflation here in America.  In what you ask? Well wages, salary and pensions of course!  We see the public union issue come to a head and it is likely to get worse. The "haves" and the "have nots" are going to clash. The "protected classes" and "connected classes" and many odd bedfellows will battle against the bankster/political class and against each other. The battles have begun and we are just getting warmed up. And we'll need a  scorecard to keep track of all the battling factions involved. There will be odd temporary political alliances in the years to come.  The war on wages, greed, entitlements has come to our doorstep finally. And it will be an ugly war with multiple, overlapping factions at times. 

What effect will this all have? Mass deflation of course. Our out-of-control budgets and entitlements ensures the battles will continue. The social mood bear market of Grand Supercycle degree will ensure that fight is long and arduous. The rich will lose some money, the poor will be poorer and the bankster/political class, eventually, will be facing jail time.  It just takes patience. The middle class? Do we even have one left?

Deflating wages and pensions and entitlements will eventually make America an attractive manufacturing base once again.  Coupled with a worldwide social mood bear market that will produce many revolutions and wars and a great deal of instability and political uncertainty, it will be the natural course of things.

It'll take a while, but perhaps on Grand Super-cycle wave (b) up many years from now, American manufacturing may be ascendant once again. If we don't kill each other first that is. 

[Update 4:32PM:  Gold's chart. Looking good for the wave 5 up. All that is required minimally is a new high but it would look better if it went higher in a blow-off top.


[Update 10:45PM: Nikkei/Dow relationship. Nikkei always seems to lead. They did after all top in 1989...
[Update 10PM: Here is an interesting chart and article I ran across http://www.businessinsider.com/these-charts-explain-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry-2011-2

One can easily make the leap that music =  a reflection of social mood.  On the first chart, we see a peak in 1976 which corresponds to the Primary wave [1] peak of cycle wave V. Of course we see the ultimate peak toward the orthodox cycle wave V near the end of the 1990's at around wave (3) of [5] of cycle V approximately.  Even the waves up in this music chart makes EW patterns.

So there you have it. If music is a direct reflection of social mood, this simple music chart kind of makes the point we are in a terrible bear market for the past 10 years and there is no bottom yet in site. 
Unadjusted dollars:
[Update 9:16PM:]
 Via Marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/  They may indeed but that is an awful confident headline and the US market is not even open on Monday!

Still movin' on up 
Stocks expected to continue gains despite Mideast tensions. Markets closed Monday for holiday.

[Update 8:43PM: Lets take a look at that CNN story again on "Where to invest your money now"


Lets review his 10 picks and see if its not a contrarian indicator:

1. COMMODITIES.  Likely close to the top of a 3 wave corrective http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-avdj7sc_PQg/TWBPsSuuMBI/AAAAAAAAItE/IeeaJ-a_9Ok/s1600/crb.png


3. TIPS BONDS. Ok that is an extrapolation of the "here comes big inflation". End of the inflation trend?

4. Australian Dollars.  Did he call the top of wave [5]?  Feeling comfortable with the trend obviously!

5. MUNICIPAL BONDS
Does this chart look bullish? Or are we just hoping? http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j_xyJ7ikLks/TV7o_z6hNAI/AAAAAAAAIsg/i10EwADxivo/s1600/MUB.png   Is he suggesting buy the dip?  Are we facing a wave 3 down? How about this statement he makes?:  "Yet most issuers in the muni bond market will repay their obligations without any problem."  What makes this guy so sure about that? Does he not know that it may only take a few major defaults to cause the whole market to melt down? What then? Its the whole attitude toward our out-of-control debt in that "it will always be ok, no worries."

6. LARGE CAP STOCKS.  This is an extrapolation of the already-has-rallied and doubled in 23 months S&P500.

7. DIVIDEND STOCKS. How about this statement he quotes:  "Dividends are issued by quality companies that have a history of cash on their balance sheets..."  Thats a crock of crap. Most dividend-giving companies are leveraged to the hilt to issue out dividends. (GE) In reality the most cash rich companies refuse to give dividends! (Goog, Apple, etc)

8. HEALTH CARE & CONSUMER STAPLES.  If there is any industry that is facing budget cuts over the next 10 years - less we face total financial collapse due to unpayable entitlements - its health care! We are in a health care bubble folks.  The passing of Obamacare helped mark the "top tick." 

9. STOCKS WITH LOW DEBT-TO-EQUITY RATIOS.  Recommending Tech companies, energy and Industrials. 

10. OVERSOLD STOCKS (BTFD!)

11. CASH. Cash did not make his TOP 10. Its almost an afterthought as in "oh yeah, I forgot cash damnit! - I'll make it number eleven on my TOP 10 list."

What is funny about cash is he quotes a guy named Taft who quotes Warren Buffett: "There is nothing wrong with 10-15% cash", Taft says. "Warren Buffett said to wait for the home-run pitch." 

So the implied reason for keeping cash? To BTMFDMF!

MY CONCLUSION?:
The entire fluff article is of little value from an investment standpoint in my opinion. It may be however a very good contrarian signal.

[Update 7:52PM: A sampling of stories around the financial sites.  All of course are upbeat and positive.   Even the ones that try and balance the bear side, wind up justifying the upside and even more upside. 





And check out this story on the top 10 things to invest in. Guess whats dead last? Cash. 



[Update 5:54PM: Top long term alternate counts.  The secondary alternate is not very satisfying.  I still prefer some form of downward flat as I have in my primary count.   

As you can see, the alternate count pretty much align with my primary count (Supercycle wave (a) downward flat) which is why I don't harp on it too much.  At this stage its a moot point. 

However one has to concede a few points about my top alternate count:
1. It already qualifies as a valid pattern as the Wilshire has retraced some 91% of the orthodox Supercycle high in 2000.  A flat requires a minimum of 90% so that guideline can be considered to be satisfied already. 

2. The true cycle wave c has yet to start and would consist of 5 primary waves down of devastating degree. 

Top reason I still don't like my alt count:  Time-wise and "look" wise, it doesn't seem correct.  I rather think this P[2] is connected with P[1] within cycle wave c. It just feels right and the sheer sharpness of this rally wave seems more a wave 2 than anything even if it is a monster.

I do not prefer the secondary alternate "x" wave count as a combination corrective is not satisfying in this case. I rather keep it simpler.  Plus we would lack that big "third of a third" spot that I feel is coming in the years ahead - the one point in the bear market that leaves no doubt we were right all along....

[Update 4:32PM: 
NEAR TERM WAVES - EXTENDED MINUTE [v]?
In observing extended wave fives of any degree, I notice that the corrections tend to be sharp, shallow zizgags and very little "sideways" action.  The unfolding advancing sub-waves always carry the price higher which is another sign of a possible extended wave five.  This is probably due to the nature of an extended wave five event. An extended wave five tends to have to get somewhere fast and make up a lot of ground. It doesn't have time for long sideways corrections. It is a wave with a purpose.  It is also a "panic" wave sort of which is why you can see it in commodities. In this case, the "panic" may be the fear in missing the rally.

The wave evidence of the past few weeks has a slight hint of a possible extended wave five, in this case Minute [v] of Minor 5.  Short shallow zizgag corrections followed by quick price advancement of the next subwaves one and three.  Another clue is that the wave structure doesn't "look" right shoehorning it into the typical "third wave is the longest" scenario. 

I also like to view extended wave fives from the perspective of "what would have made a nice 5 wave structure?" and then turn that spot into the first subwave one of the next lower degree and go from there.

Extended wave fives also confuse the market players. Not seeing a "normal" clear 5 wave pattern leaves the market open for a myriad of considerations.  In this case, there are many who are proposing that the extension is in fact main pressure point in a "third of a third" wave of primary degree.  In this case, the wave will not "look back" and will continue to advance for many weeks.  Needless to say, I do not take the view that this is a "third of a third" primary wave [3] up for a myriad of reasons, one of which is the sentiment picture does not support that view at all.  http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uJxezvLyhrA/TWBQAIx2OiI/AAAAAAAAItQ/YRJtXPah1Vk/s1600/naaim.gif


Another reason is the technical picture is likely to feel resistance http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dThkwhQxR7A/TV8R9tc1m6I/AAAAAAAAIs8/A2z5uxBfq4Y/s1600/wilshiremonthly.png

Additionally we already have "non-confirming" events occurring. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OP3CD7QuhLU/TV76gK6uIrI/AAAAAAAAIss/XiflyUTcR-k/s1600/index.png 

Extended wave fives mark the end of an advance of importance.  In this case, we propose that Primary wave [2] would be coming to a top of historic importance.  In fact wave (C) would be .618 of (A) which is a very satisfying structure. That I could not see the size and scope of it from the beginning bothers me, but again, I try and learn and get better.

FLASHBACK EARLY 2009
I would also like to reminisce a bit here. When other prominent wave bloggers, such as Tony C was calling for a new bull market rally during Intermediate wave (4) in late 2008, early 2009, followers of Prechter like myself said "hold on, we have one more big wave down, likely sub-700 coming." And that is exactly what happened and it caught the "other" wavers off guard.  They now folded this "new unexpected wave" into their long term counts and forgot about it.

I too went bullish in early 2009.  I had imagined we would see a big zigzag or a double zigzag or even triple ZZ rally P[2].  The problems came in obviously when the size and scope of P[2] was just too big for me to objectively see.  Who woulda thought we would see burritos at http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZbVa8GjhR0o/TWCSk8SUmcI/AAAAAAAAItc/40UdMkIu0b0/s1600/cmg.png  $268 when they were going for $38 at the depths of hell?  But that does not make the count wrong. P[2] still, at the moment at least, is one gigantic zigzag rally and its approaching an important Fibonacci relationship.

So here we are again and there are clearly 2 distinct wave camps and like early 2009, one will be fantastically right and one will be dead wrong. Caldero and such are calling this Primary wave [3] up of a cycle wave event.  This means we are near a "third of a third" although conveniently he does not have his primary chart labeled for it in that manner.  Regardless, this is a big event coming. Either it is correct, or it is not.   Regardless, it would mean we have a lot of rallying left to do and that this "bull market" is only half way over at best.

IS THIS A BULL MARKET ONLY HALF OVER OR LESS?
Everyone eventually looks for a top (just as we look for bottoms). Everyone has a bias. These are true statements whether you admit them or not.  If you are a serious waver, you must take a stance or else the entire exercise is no longer much of any use. One cannot objectively have as a primary count "new market highs" in a P[3] up count, and then have an alt count as P[2] up and new market lows.  It is not serious work in that case.

TOP ALTERNATE COUNT 
My top alternate count is that this is an [B] of cycle degree that will take a 3 wave form and we are in wave (C) now. Its just a matter of finding the top of (C). And then the true cycle wave c down would begin in earnest and be a 5 wave structure down of 5 primary degrees forming a huge flat count.  Regardless though, my top alternate count would still have the market in a huge downdraft. 


IMPLICATIONS OF P[3] UP
The implications of a P[3] up are huge to say the least. Firstly, one would expect the size of a P[3] to be larger by a Fibonacci proportion to that of P[1] up.  P[1] up was some 553 points and since their proposed P[2] was a shallow correction of not even 38% (a characteristic that smacks more of a (b) or [B] wave not a wave two) we might expect that a P[3] would objectively already carry the market to new highs if wave [3] were greater than 553 points since P[3] would have started at 1010 SPX. Then we would endure a sideways (or sharp) wave four and then a P[5]. How long would all this take?  2 more years?

CONCLUSION:
I do not support the P[3] up scenario. It just does not fit well into the longer term wave picture.
Another possible way of labeling an extended wave five count:
[Update 2:56PM: The DJIA is probably giving the clearest wave picture of the past few weeks.]
[Update Sunday 9:41AM: yet another P[2] high flyer that may be showing cracks. NFLX printed a  potentially bearish weekly candle.  I won't even put a count on it, rather it just shows the parabolic move it has made in stages.
[Update 11:15: PCLN. Seems counter-trend so a double ZZ came to mind.
[Update 11:02PM By request, CMG. It too makes very nice waves.
ORIGINAL POST
Apple. More hedge funds own Apple than ever before http://www.zerohedge.com/article/q4-hedge-fund-hotel-update-apple-now-held-record-195-hedge-funds and it may mark the top tick month. Apple has a certain "rollover" look going about it at the moment.

You likely have all the retail on board the stock. You have all hedge funds on board and likely all institutional investors.  Can anyone else possibly pile in to drive this wave five higher? 
Proposed expanding ending diagonal in AMZN.
The next 2 charts are via http://www.sentimentrader.com  The first is a the NAAIM survey. These are active money managers and the survey seems to be a good contrarian indicator at extremes which it is currently.  

Additionally the red "confidence" indicator bars measures how much deviation between survey responses. The higher the confidence, the less deviation and an indication of "group think". The confidence level has now been over 50 for a solid amount of time.  

So taken the survey level very high along with solid evidence of bullish groupthink, we should expect the market is going to start struggling going forward.
Unloved bonds suggests they may get some attention sooner rather than later.
BPSPX all-time high. Again, the indicator looks like it has struggled the last weeks to get here. Sooner, rather than later, the market should be struggling to get higher.  
CRB
NASDAQ100