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Sunday, July 31, 2011

E-minis


Friday, July 29, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 July 2011 [Update 4:46PM]

[Update 4:46PM: 30 year yield count looks good still. Finally broke under toward the blue box area but likely has some more squiggles to go. Then, wave (3) up should take hold.  All timed on a debt deal? Sure why not?
 Looking for a hit on the long-term up line or even a false break under it.
6 month yields - whoa hey - look at that bounce off the (5) low! Expected. Long term: Rising Yield Deflation.  Not in the books? Well then thats just perfect.

ORIGINAL POST
The first 20 minutes of trading today experienced some intense downside pressure. The decliners versus advancers were over 10:1 for the firt 15 minutes peaking at 15:1. Down volume was just as bad.   But the 200 DMA again brought in a slew of buyers and by 11:20 A.M., both up volume ratio and advancers briefly went into positive territory as well as the market.

So to say the least it was a panic open and a reaction bounce.

Primary count has the market in wave [e] of Minor 4 and it may well have bottomed today at SPX 1282. We had a minimum target range of 1286-1287.
Additionally the Wilshire hit is long term uptrend line.

E-minis

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 July 2011

Wave iv bounce today as expected http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3vCzuoCwW4A/TjC2mjNR8BI/AAAAAAAAJlk/ZLhahc2_Cz4/s1600/wilshire1.png. Then a downturn in what could be a wave v of (c) of [e].

Triangle Minor 4 count is still the primary count and we are now coming into the ideal [e] wave target window. You can see on the Wilshire5000, it has made a lower low than 18 July low.   SPX is diverging at the moment. SPX target is 1286-1287 SPX for an ideal [e] wave.

SPX:
Wilshire 5000:

IF THE MARKET HAS 'TOPPED' AT 1370, AND IF THIS IS A THIRD WAVE OF SOME DEGREE, THEN THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET UGLY SOON.
Lowest an [e] wave can go is 1259 SPX. Then it would violate the [c] wave.   If 1258 support were to break on storming downside breadth, than a triangle Minor 4 count is not whats happening but more likely a wave [iii] of Minor 1 down.

NYAD down breadth is starting to take a bearish hit.  At the least one can say it no longer is acting in a bullish manner with elevated levels versus prices.

BOTTOM LINE
The market may soon tip its hand one way or the other. I am not in love with the Minor 4 triangle count, however it is the best EW interpretation I feel at this moment.  I still can see one more "thrust" up in an attempt to squeeze its way to 1370.

I can also see the opposite happening as the rot underneath the system eats away ever more at the foundation of bull.

E-minis

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 July 2011 [Update 9:08PM]

[Update 9:08PM: Squiggle count in the context of a (c) of [e] wave. The (c) would be a 5 wave move from (b). Probably due for a bounce tomorrow.  This count expects any bounce to stay below red [4].
[Update 8:44PM: The Wilshire daily from a P[2] time perspective.  One can only assume that if this plays out, the surge will be dependent upon a debt ceiling deal that creates a really big short squeeze.
[Update 8:30 PM:  Trendlines, 200 DMA and such.]
ORIGINAL POST
Well we now finally seem to have a bit of panic selling. That could fit an [e] wave profile. However downside breadth (10.8 decliners vs advancers on NYSE) and volume ratios (17.2: 1 down volume ratio) are quite high.

Regardless target range is 1286-1287 SPX for an "ideal" [e] wave where [e] = .618 x [c].  If it goes lower, than I have my doubts its an [e] wave depending on market internals.    Technically an [e] could go as low as 1259 SPX, or the [c] wave low.
I'll have more later, its time to eat.

E-minis

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 July 2011

Uncertainty rules the day, yet the market is clearly still above the center axis line of the 6 month trading range. So one could say the market is buying the rumor at the moment with an upward bias.  The NASDAQ 100 certainly reflects this upward bias.  One has to think if the debt ceiling deal gets accomplished the market may sell that news.  Maybe it buys it too. But the wave pattern suggests it wouldn't be a long drawn out buy.

KEEPING THE EYE ON THE BALL
Why does the wave pattern suggest that no matter the outcome of near term events things look bearish 1-2 months down the road ? Because simply Minor 1 of (C) was only 110 SPX points. Minor 3 was almost 2.619 Fibonacci of Minor 1.  Thats a long wave 3.  The sideways trading range is a deep range, not a tight contracting pattern. Its not a particularly strong market structure long term in my opinion.

So as I showed last night, the 4 major asset markets, Gold, equities, bonds and the dollar, may be putting in long term topping/bottoming patterns. It may have a few more weeks to run. We can certainly give it that. Not one asset class has broken its long-term trend just yet yet all show signs and wave patterns that is consistent with topping/bottoming pattern. So again, we await more and more squiggles to add to the evidence for each.

Triangle Minor 4 is still probably the best count for now. 1287 is still a legitimate wave [e] target. Unresolved still.


E-minis

Gyrations. 
Further breakdown of the dollar as expected.
NDX100

Monday, July 25, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 July 2011 [Update 6:24PM]

[Update 6:24PM: Dollar, Bonds, Gold.  It is no coincidence that all 4 asset classes - to include stocks - show that they may have perhaps have a few more weeks of run time and that they are all potentially making long-term patterns.

Gold - Primary wave [5] high.  In Minute [v] of 5 up.

Dollar - A Cycle wave II low multi-year double bottom.

30 -year Bonds - (2) of [2] major low in yields. With (3) of [3] up in yields soon to commence.

Wilshire 5000 - (C) of P[2].

So all are seeking their endgames I believe.  This was predicted. And it actually seems to be working out that way.

Gold. Shooting for the upper channel lines above? One has to respect that potential. This is non-log scale.

Dollar count. Regardless of the noise, I'm looking at a potential multi-year double bottom here.
Jim Rogers now announced he was short bonds in June. The sideways support has made him feel comfortable to say that perhaps.  I am still looking for a challenge to my blue box area. I wonder if its coming. I must trust that it is. 
[Update 5:51PM: There is a persistent reason in the larger EW pattern that keeps me cautious on the counts. When (C) = .618 x (A) in price was surpassed earlier this year, then perhaps (C) would = (A) in time instead of a Fibonacci multiple in price.

The market is still 3 weeks out from this marker.  The debt ceiling drama will have likely been "solved" by then to everyone's delight that they think they averted a market disaster. I of course rather believe the market is in a major topping pattern regardless.

Yes the debt ceiling may be a drama, but it does matter, it is important, and it does reflect a changing social mood has finally had an impact on the rubber-stamping Congress.


ORIGINAL POST
On a Wilshire 1 minute chart you can see a better count may be 5 waves down from Friday's peak and 5 waves down from today's late afternoon high.  So that suggests the short term trend may be down.
NASDAQ100 looks wedgy at the top of a fifth Minor wave.  Thats usually a bearish formation.  But finding the end of the wedge is sometimes a tricky affair.
OR
There is still a valid Minor 5 count but that would require the Wilshire to make higher highs soon.
And of course we have our triangle counts intact, two variations:

Sunday, July 24, 2011

E-minis

Not much of a panic, the Nasdaq 100 is like a balloon in water.
Dollar looks pretty limp
An a-b-c up in the e-minis.
This would qualify for an [e] wave "panic" I have been harping about.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Weekly Review ~ July 16 - 22 2011

SPX AND WILSHIRE 5000
On Friday the count was [e] wave of Minor 4 with a downside target of 1287 - 1288

On Monday the market did have some downside and speculated we may have one more wave down to our target area. In fact we wound up posting 3 variations. The last count variation update was when it was realized the market was likely to bounce the next day and we have seen the short term low.

On Tuesday we did in fact have an upside day and pointed out that resistance at 1331-1333 SPX would be an obstacle.   The Minor 5 upside count was first presented in this update.

On Wednesday it was presented as an a-b-c bounce that did in fact stop at 1331 resistance but later in the update it was realized that an upside impulse was likely at hand and would result in more upside

Thursday saw an immediate surge out of the impulse formation presented in Wednesday's late update. The primary count was switched to Minor 5 up due to price action and wave structure.  The market then did in fact make higher highs on the Wilshire 5000 on Friday.  We are holding this count as top priority unless key wave markers are broken to the downside

REVIEW DISCUSSION
Another uncertain squiggle week as the market continues to operate within a 6 month + trading range.  There was a lot of variation in the squiggle counts presented this week as the short term wave structure was and still is open to a lot of interpretation.  However we are starting to get some clarity. For instance the NDX sports at a minimum, a completed wave structure from 2010. Yes it could extend but at the least we have identified a breakout wave 5 up complete with Minute wave degree.  So we may assume the other indexes are certainly close to being in the same wave count more or less.

This week could be more the same.  A big gap down Sunday would not surprise either that is how screwed up the basic fundamentals are with reality.  The market is within spitting distance of a new P[2] high and yet the world is awash in uncertainty and in bankster extortion bailing out entire sovereign countries. Coupled with a political wrangling on raising the American Ponzi debt ceiling keeps us all jumpy.  There is still valid [e] wave counts out there for the SPX and Wilshire 5000.  So be flexible and watch your key wave markers.  Friday's low of 1338 SPX is one such marker we need to watch.

DOLLAR
Last Wednesday we speculated the dollar was about to thrust down It appeared to have done so since.

BAD CALLS
Apple did not sell the news.  At least not yet.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 July 2011

Today's constructive price action has brought the Minor 5 of Intermediate (C) up count to the forefront. The key is today's pivot low and the "virgin wave space". If this area is breached to the downside early next week, we may have an [e] wave triangle going on http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a3-6kM6D0is/TimK7R3QY5I/AAAAAAAAJjY/jaVJMx6_Nvs/s1600/SPX30.png or something worse.

The Nasdaq 100 has made, at the least, a 5 wave move at both Minor degree and Minute degree to a new 2011 high. This also supports the view of Minor 5. This diverges at the moment though with the Composite. It has not made new 2011 highs.
Squiggle count for Minor 5. I use the Wilshire for superior form but the SPX is virtually the same count. If this played out over next week, we would be looking at a potential doubletop in the 1365-1370 SPX area.
Above the supercycle channel line again

E-minis [Update 1 PM]

[Update 3:07 PM:
[Update 1:45PM: Lets see if this count is correct or not and if there is one more push today.
Key price marker is today's low.
[Update 1PM: Minor 5 count update. Price action is making a good case this is Minor 5:
Wilshire:
[Update 10:36AM: Still way too early to imagine an [e] wave forming its own triangle but if it did here is a proposed pathing:
At the channel
Current up channel
Oil has a potential inverted H&S: