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Friday, January 6, 2012

E-minis [Update 2:18PM]

Update 2:18PM: It would still be ideal for wave [y], the second zigzag, to finish higher than wave [w], the first zigzag which is 1292 for the SPX.  The Wilshire5000 is the same count and used for form and shown below.

Update 10:58AM: The lower channel line is again supporting prices. The market deems this important.
Update 10:06AM: The pattern presented in pre-market did meet minimum requirements.
Update 9:54: The most bearish opening that could have occurred today (in my opinion) would be a flat open (after a new high in premarket - which happened) and then steady selling. So far thats the case.

If the Leading Diagonal count proves true, this is how I would count the corrective wave [2]. Looks like a mini-extended 5th wave up to [2].

Update 7:53AM - Putting a count to the futures to match the primary count in the cash index. Rarely it seems does the market form a classic "rising wedge" anymore. I suspect because a wedge is a widely recognized chart pattern and its effectiveness is therefore limited.

Instead, there seems to be a preference for the slightly expanding ending diagonal patterns instead of classic converging wedges. At least that been my observation of looking at every squiggle for the past 3+ years.
Corrected the oil chart from last night. I had the beginning 1 and 2 in the wrong spots. Although I always remember WTIC's low was in 2008.  Regardless, I adjusted the count.

Maintaining the channel. A break of the lower channel line will clue us in that things may be changing.

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