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Thursday, January 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 January 2012 [Update 5:14PM]

Update 5:24PM: The market has a way of always catching the majority off-guard. As all eyes have been fixed on Europe for well many months now, I have a feeling the good ol' USA is about to take its turn again in the spotlight.  The automatic debt ceiling raise will soon occur. How appropriate would it be to see bonds sell very hard off and everyone do a ? In fact thats my call here. I think TLT is in a major topping process and is on the cusp of breaking down violently.

Update 5:12PM: MUB painted an interesting candle today again on volume.
The upper bollinger band on the Wilshire 5000 today was breached. If thats what the market wanted to do, it did it.
SPY had its breakaway gap down challenged and pretty much closed. If thats what the market wanted to do, it did it.
There is an interesting APEX point that will be reached tomorrow.  Perhaps it was met today. Oftentimes these APEX points mark major turns.  In this case Minor 2 would be topping.
Waves i, iii and v connect cleanly on a channel as does ii and iv. Despite the market meltup, there is no need yet to even alter this count at even the subminuette level (black). Again, 1277 is a "control" for now. Note also again waning up volume, etc.
The daily VIX bollinger bands are getting tight.  Yet there is an open gap just below. If the market means to close it, then it hasn't done so yet. And yeah the whole VIX looks like a giant falling bullish - bullish for volatility - wedge.

Sentiment data is hitting extremes on all time scales.  I'll show some update charts tonight as data rolls in.

There is no use in pondering other wave counts. Minor 2 has the freedom to retrace as high as it needs as long as its not 100%.  SPX is about 80% so its a moot point now.

But I said this was going to be a powerful wave 2 as a Zweig Breadth Thrust event was triggered in October.

Then it was suggested a double zigzag would occur due to time factors. But double zigzags usually only occur due to price factors. It seems both were in play. Simply put, 1292 SPX was not a high enough price on the first zigzag.  Now the second zigzag has carried prices higher. How high? One wonders if the market will just squeak out a break of Prechter's 1360 "Stop".  It has been cruel that way.  But even if 1360.04 is the Minor 2 high, it would still qualify as Minor 2.

And thats about my take on things.
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