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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 January 2012 [Update 10:40PM]

Update 10:40PM: Long term daily Wilshire 5000 chart. Watching the trendlines both down and up..  Overbought. Total volume low.

Update 7:17PM: Updated Apple chart.  This is a very satisfying EW pattern. Mature in its waves, channeling and technicals.  Sentiment is so freaking high on Apple I cannot imagine it getting higher. Thats how a top is supposed to be where one cannot imagine any downside.

Perhaps it has some Minute squiggles left in it, I don't know. but I do know they are definitely the rage of the media at the moment surpassing everything before.

Update 6:20PM: The last "unfinished" business is the dollar filling its gap up. Its getting closer.

Update 4:40PM: One of my very favorite yield counts. Quietly building pressure to break back upwards.  The FED does not control rates as much as they think they do. "Rates to be low til 2014".  And you know the amazing thing? Not one soul has even questioned this. Not even EWI as they are "enamored" with US treasuries too much in my opinion.

I say its bunk and a "top-tick" moment so-to-speak.  I dare say rates may go up quicker than anyone can  imagine. I can imagine it.

You know what? Both Stocks and Bonds are overvalued by far in my opinion.

The best count has the SPX and Wilshire5000 near the top of wave iii of (c) of [y] of Minor 2 up.  Minor 2 up cannot make a new high above the 2011 high. I use the Wilshire 5000 for arbitration purposes. The SPX should also not make a new high.

Prices maintained above the 1296-1307 support range and it was suggested that if this zone can be used as support, prices are free to make a move higher. So far that is exactly what has happened.

Wilshire has the best form. Comprising some 5000 stocks and practically the entire market, it is probably the best index to use for counting waves.
SPX is almost always identical count to the Wilshire.  I'll keep putting up an "ALT 2" as there are enough waves and price and sentiment and technicals to say Minor 2 may be over.  But its not the best count at the moment. Wave iii "looks" better for now.
Again using the Wilshire keeping an eye on the upper down-sloping trendline from 2011:
VIX closed that big gap finally:

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