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Thursday, January 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 January 2012

Primary count is the market is tracing out a corrective wave iv of (c) of [y] of Minor 2.   Today's high of SPX 1333.47 would mark the price top of wave iii.

There are 4 things to watch and all can be seen in the SPX chart below:

1.  The support zone (marked as Key Price Zone) should hold for wave iv. It has so far.

2. The lower channel line should, in general, hold for wave iv.

3. Wave iv should take the form of a corrective pattern [a]-[b][c] either a flat, zigzag or triangle or a combination.

4.  An impulse 5 wave pattern to the downside would indicate a trend change to bearish. So far at least the wave pattern from today's early high does not count well as an impulse down. Therefore we assume the market is tracing Subminuette wave iv with wave v to come after the corrective is over.

Fib calculations for wave v:

This is getting ahead of things but since wave i is the proposed longest wave of the structure, wave v will be shorter than wave iii. A good target for v would be .618 times the price length of wave i in this case.

Suppose wave iv's price low is 1310 SPX. You would then take 82.25 (price length of i) multiplied by .618 and you get a projected wave v price length of 51 points.  1310 + 51 points = a top of 1361 which would just break Prechter's announced stop of 1360.

The "minimum" requirement for wave v is just to make a higher high above today's 1333 mark.  So our target range for wave v would be 1334 to roughly 1361. This is very much subject to change depending on our ability to identify a completed wave iv, but I wanted to show how the thought process works in EW theory.

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