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Friday, January 27, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 January 2012 [Update 4:47PM]

Update 4:47PM: Dollar is filling that gap. That is one of the last "unfulfilled" charts I was watching.

Update 4:44PM:  One of the reasons I'm bearish is because the credit markets are telling me to be bearish 
Portugal is an example of rising yield deflation.   The ECB is playing "whack-a-mole" with each nation deep in debt. Greece, Italy. Well, they cannot forget Portugal huh?  There are other lurkers out there too. Expect a surprise or two or three. The market is funny that way.

Primary count is still wave iv of (c) of [y] of Minor 2 up.  Wilshire shown for superior form but the SPX would be counted the same.  We'll give the bulls the benefit of the doubt since support again easily held

However, we may have a stealth impulse pattern down from the high to today's low.  That gives the bears an edge. 5 waves down implies at least another 5 waves down should follow to either form a wave iv low or even begin a larger pattern for Minor 3 down.

Its not a great impulse pattern, but you can see we can make it work.  I kinda like it though.  Today had a bit of a distribution feel about it. Every little dip was bought and every little rise was sold.  However up volume ratio and advancers were positive pretty much all day despite the negative price bias. So that agrees with an interpretation of wave iv and suggests there is still a certain "buoyancy" in the market.
SPX shows the key price support zone and the channel. As long as they hold up in general, we have to assume this is wave iv because that what "looks best".
We'll see what Monday's price action does. It is a key day.
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