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Monday, January 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 January 2012 [Update 5PM]

Update 5PM: An updated TLT chart. I am longer-term bearish on TLT. But it may need to finish up a wave 5 high first.  There could be a [w]-[x]-[y] structure going on at the moment.  The only thing required is a new price high for wave 5.


ORIGINAL POST
The wave structure since the recent 1333 SPX price high to today's low counts best as a 3 wave structure for now and that makes it a corrective structure.  This fits into the idea of a wave iv of (c) of [y] of Minor 2.

On the Wilshire 5000, the "virgin wave space" is still not breached.  It would be preferable - if this is wave iv - for this space to remain unscathed by any further price retrace. Therefore, again - if this is wave iv - then today's low was likely the price low of the wave iv.
SPX 10 minute:
Some updated Fib targets for the SPX wave v price peak based on today's price low.

If wave v = .618 x wave i = 1351 SPX.

Since wave v should finish higher in price than wave iii (1333 SPX), then our updated wave v target range is 1334 - 1351 SPX.

BEARISH CASE:
The best bearish case is that a series of "ones and twos" has traced out and tomorrow/Wednesday will see a breakaway down hard beneath 1300 SPX support in a "third of a third" wave down.  In other words, if it happens, you'll know it when you see it. This is the best bearish alternate count at the moment. 


Wilshire hourly chart shows a very neat trendline created at the last price peak:

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