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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 January 2012 [Update 5:40PM]

[Update 5:40PM: Speaking of potential ending diagonal counts. Here is US long bonds.
[Update 4:55PM: Added the SPX 60 minute chart.
There were some options presented with yesterday's break upward. Today's wave action has helped narrow the focus.

Primary count is that the SPX and Wilshire are in Ending Diagonal triangle counts.  The retrace from yesterday's high to today's low seems like a separate corrective rather than part of a subwave of a wave iii higher. So hence its labeled as wave iv and created a slight overlap with wave i price peak thereby creating the ED possibility.

SPX primary count. Note the pink wave (a) was a nice impulsive move. The wave (c) is losing that overall impulsiveness in my opinion as a whole. It counts better as [A]-[B]-[C]'s up which help identify that its perhaps growing tired (and hence losing the 5 subwave structure impulsiveness)

Ideally, wave [y] - the second zigzag in Minor 2 - should finish higher in price than wave [w]. That is a strong guideline of double zigzags so it should be given the benefit of the doubt. A final burst higher might do the trick and finish the wedge. Than a dramatic reversal lower would be the result after the ED came to an end.
Alternate count.  Lower target.

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