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Friday, February 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 February 2012

You know, the media was quick to jump on the first  - apparently (not!) - 100 point DOW drop this year. Blaring headlines on all the websites including Drudge (ITALIAN BANKS DOWNGRADED), Yahoo (IS THE MARKET READY TO DROP?), Marketwatch (STOCKS WORST DAY OF YEAR), etc.  There does seem to be a "wall of worry" still in place.  A lot of hoopla and the day ended down .69% on the DJIA.  I'll be quite frank, as a bear, this kind of immediate "the world is ending" so quickly mentality is off-putting.  Now I await EWI's perspective. If they are bearish, crap, I'm hosed as a short.

Does this make me a bear turned bullish?  Of course not, but it does make me question the exact timing. And since I do squiggle counts, I am in the business of timing indeed.

The early morning e-mini chart showed  1) a channel  2) horizontal support. Yet end of day ended back inside the channel and above the support. So we await Sunday night/Monday.
I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls because they held major support (above 1336SPX) and the wave structure may need another pop.
Best guess squiggle count giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for Monday. 
There are indeed enough waves for a complete 5 wave structure from the 1202 SPX low.  The market hasn't seen a 1% loss all year (and it still hasn't). However, the media was very quick to get bearish on the gap down open which should trouble the bears. Yet the market maintained all major support. 

So squiggles still support another wave up. Therefore the market will get the benefit of the doubt for now.

It will take a solid close under 1336 SPX to begin to consider a signal to a trend change . And as bearish as today "felt" that hasn't yet happened.

ADDENDUM: Though the bulls get the benefit of the doubt, I do however think the retrace to 1337 has damaged the market technically.  For instance if [5] = [1] the upside upper target is now only 1358 SPX, thereby preserving Prechter's 1360 SPX stop loss.
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