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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 February 2012 [Update 7:36 PM]

Update 7:36PM: Wilshire count since the pre-Christmas low. Wave degree isn't important at the moment.
Close-up of the virgin space. It need not be big, it need only be valid.

Update 5:40PM: Nikkei proposed "E" wave getting stretched.

Update 5:31PM: Rising Wedge. Showing negative divergence on the breadth thrust.
Price and Volume Trend shows longer-term negative divergence.

Update 5:26PM: There appears to be a small wedge ending diagonal at today's high also.  Where it fits in the overall count is unclear.

The e-minis show perhaps that the market is losing its overall impulsiveness to the upside.  Each motive wave (i), (iii), (v) would no longer sport a 5 subwave impulse within each, instead we would count them as a-b-c "threes".  This is how you label an ending diagonal. Wave (iv) and (i) should also overlap giving further evidence of a loss of momentum.

In theory, having each wave (i), (iii) and (v) sport a "three" is a clue in this loss of momentum.  Having wave (iv) overlap (i) is another sign of loss of impulsiveness.

Here for instance is a proposed ending diagonal triangle count. We already have the (iv) overlap with (i) and legs (i) and (iii) count nicely as a-b-c "threes".

A solid break under, say, 1353 futures - or approx where the green dashed line is - might be bearish.

Dow Transports have broken down further today despite the shiny new Industrial 13K touch.
Wilshire5000 (and of course the S&P500) have not yet confirmed the Industrials and NASDAQ upside high breakouts.
Wilshire 5000 long term resistance.

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