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Monday, March 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 March 2012 [Update 9:50PM]

Update 9:50PM: An e-mini count:

Update 6PM: A comparison of the NY Composite Index to the NYSE advance/decline. 3 day divergence at the close of today. Thats bearish if not confirmed soon.
Update 5:22PM: Here is an SPX 5 minute chart.  Again, we are trying to confirm a wave (iii) high and a wave (iv) pullback. A significant break of this proposed channel to the downside would imply the 5 wave move from 1340 is over. Again, we'll give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls here.
Trying to confirm wave (iii) and (iv) of [v] of Minor C.

The market popped higher today and barreled past the Wilshire5000 14,825 - 14,830 price target range. That was the price range where  [v] = .618 x [i] within wave C and where (v) = .618 x (i) within wave [v] of C.

If [v] = [i] then the target for the Wilshire5000 is approximately 15,269. The equivalent for the SPX would be 1448 SPX if [v] = [i] within C.  But 1448 is above the 1440 May 2008 intraday price peak on the SPX so that is a tall order for a fifth wave to achieve.

On the near term, we are trying to count 5 waves up since the 1340 SPX pivot low. Using the Wilshire5000 for form, we have several variations:

1st variation presents an interesting channel in the making. This supposes that wave (iii) peaked in price today. This would be the preferred count probably for now. This implies a hard backtest of the SPX 1400 support area is required for (iv).  This even allows for a gap down tomorrow if need be.
2nd variation imagines a significant high has been reached or nearly reached.  Again, there are enough waves in place, however it just doesn't feel or look quite right. However it does channel well with (v) hitting the midpoint.
3rd variation is that a breakout of 1400 has occurred and the market will just keep going up until it reaches 1440ish.  I would think there is a hard backtest of 1400 SPX to occur first though so this squiggle count is not the top variation.
Wilshire 5000. We can guess where wave (ii) of [v] of (c) probably is but figuring out where (iii) and (iv) of [v] is still a bit tricky. Once we can confirm where (iii) and (iv) are or will be, then finding (v) should be recognizable.
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