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Thursday, April 12, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 April 2012

Another strong (actually stronger than yesterday) up day (80% up issues on NYSE and 89% up volume ratio) suggests the notion that Minute [v] wave has "kicked off" and that this is not a corrective wave (ii) up. This implies that a new recovery high above 1422 SPX will eventually occur.

The Wilshire5000 has closed above the sighted resistance last night of 14,560 (14,562-14,564 to be exact). It needs to spurt higher and then settle and hold this level as support to be able to launch even higher.  With an unclosed open gap down on the SPY and futures lurching into this gap area, its as good a guess as any.
Using the hourly Wilshire chart, wave (i) would likely be the extended wave of [v] of C. That's just a hunch.

CONCLUSION
Two nights ago, it was suggested it was either "now or never" for a Minute [v] wave to launch as the market was running out of price room and nearing the previous subwave (iv) of [iii] pivot.  The market responded to deep short term oversold yesterday and then had a follow-up day today which suggests wave [v] is indeed on the table.

The one caveat is that it actually must keep following through somewhat (duh!) in order for the market to re-capture the breakdown zone and use it as support in order to gain even higher prices.

So with that said, if prices somehow fail to hold and gain, we are looking at a possible wave (iii) down. However, strong market internals and a "breadth thrust" suggest that the market will succeed in going higher.

A failure to capture the breakdown point (about 1392 SPX) could result in heavy "downside surprise" turnaround.  So bulls are certainly not yet in the clear.

Not that there is "any clear" (long term) to speak of. If this is wave [v] as it would be a final wave.
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