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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 April 2012 [Update 8:10PM]

Update 8:10PM: NASDAQ100 - could be an expanding leading diagonal triangle
Of course the market is no longer deeply oversold. I once did a study on the starting NYMO price for wave threes down during the 2007-2009 market decline and found that wave threes - of any decent size - never usually started from a negative number. In fact it was usually just above the zero line.

So the NYMO is nearly perfectly "setup" for a wave (iii) down  if thats what the market has in store.
Dollar still in a long-winded stealth uptrend. Its getting to the point where to keep making progress, it will have to thrust higher in a wave three move.

Technically and sentiment-wise, its ripe for a big up move.
Updated Presidential Approval chart. Like the stock market, Obama's approval has not broken the uptrend channel. But it is diverging with last summer's peak.  This is a good example of how social mood determines not only stocks but how we feel about our politicians.
The President is more likely sensitive to the Intermediate trend in mood. But Congress' Approval is probably susceptible to the larger degree social mood trend. And as of the 21st of March, Congress' disapproval is still growing. This indicates the larger trend (of Supercycle degree)  in social mood is heading more negative. 

The stock market rallied since October and Congress got little benefit - although Obama did. 

Possible upward flat corrective. It was not a 90% up day. Strong yes, but the SPX closed under 1391. And total volume is uninspiring.

The aforementioned breakdown point was 1388-1391. It would have been better had it been able to close above 1391. Yes we quibble.

Wilshire shown for form.
SPX Daily.  Bull or bear? We'll let the market decide and place your bets. If the SPX can get and hold above its breakdown point of 1388-1391, then there is an excellent chance it can power on to new recovery highs.

If it cannot retake resistance, look out below, a wave (iii) surprise downside is coming fast.
I favor downside coming - as of this moment - because of the 3 wave nature of the pattern since the recent 1357 low.
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