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Monday, April 2, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 April 2012

Tweaked the count to match a possible wave [iv] triangle in the works.

SPX Weekly.If the market continues to grind toward 1440, its likely bullish sentiment will be quite substantial.
Sentiment is quite elevated.  Some examples:
Investor Intelligence Bull Ratio is 69%

AAII bullratio is 62% and has been above 60% for multi months which is the longest its been that consistently bullish in many many years.

Consensus,inc. sentiment is at 78% the highest since 2003.

Market Vane is 68%, highest since 2007.

So there is a lot of extreme sentiment being generated.  Yet not every sentiment gauge is on board. For instance ISE Sentiment Index is actually closer to bearish (although the ISE equity-only put/call ratio is at an extreme).

So if the market can grind higher it can only imply a major market peak is being hammered out.  Question is what price level?

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