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Monday, April 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 April 2012

An Elliott Wave pattern is clear on the NYSE Advance/Decline cumulative line and this is true on many timescales.

Weekly one can imagine that the NYAD count is in a cycle wave V (not the same as the cash index nor tracking pure social mood as I explain below) since the late 1980's or perhaps the 1987 crash.  Note the peak RSI occurred in the middle of Cycle wave III.

This chart represent's the "mania days" more than anything else out there. In other words, despite being on the verge of a complete worldwide financial armegeddon, this chart shows just how disconnected from reality everything is.  $16 Trillion in debt? No problem! $30-$40T in unfunded promises? No problem. In fact its someone else's problem seems to be the prevailing attitude. As long as "I get mine" attitude.

So despite the underlying rot in the system, the casino is still humming along at breakneck speed toward a cycle wave V mania peak.  We still think we can gamble, win, get out and not have the system affect us.

So I like to think of this chart a cycle wave chart of social "madness", an offshoot twist of social mood. And as you can see we may be peaking soon in the madness department.

Daily since 2009, we again can see a pretty decent Elliott Wave pattern with a proposed extended wave [1].
And since last October, again, zooming in, the waves are unfolding heading toward an all-time peak. Of course we thought that 2 years ago, but hey, a Supercycle wave in madness takes time to peak I guess.  The more waves that are laid down the more the count is strengthened, not lessened.

Again, RSI peak at the [iii] of 3 of (3) spot just where we would expect it.
So based on these charts above, one can surmise that it (NYAD count) is not yet quite finished.  But market prices may begin to churn.  We shall see.

 The GDOW and CAC charts are probably the best wave counts out there and have been consistently since the 2011 peak in each. Both may be in a wave [ii] (a)-(b)-(c) bounce which means the US markets will likely hold up in prices accordingly.

But take note, that the next wave down after [ii] for both the CAC and GDOW would be wave [iii] and that should be quite harsh and we would expect a harsh reaction in the US markets.
Backtesting the breakout for support. In SPX terms, the S&P is backtesting the 1388-1391 breakout.

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