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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 April 2012

There are several things bears are looking for to indicate a change in trend in EW theory:

1. Five waves down.
2. Lower lows in prices thus breaking support areas and the putting the previous uptrend in doubt.
3. 90% down day on volume.

1a: As of today's close, we probably do not yet have 5 waves down on the Wilshire5000 and SPX.
2a: Lower lows on the Wilshire and SPX has not yet occurred. Previous support pivots have held.
3a: Today was about an 85% down day on the NYSE and Nasdaq.

So in all 3 instances we have not yet had a confirmation of a break in the uptrend. That is not to say today did not inflict technical damage - it certainly did - however the bottom line is the bears likely have more work cut out for them.  Tomorrow's trading day prior to a holiday is seasonally positive.

Another lower low - even a quick gap down - would make a nice 5 wave move off the top:
The triangle on the Wilshire5000 is technically still intact although it has been damaged materially and does not work on most indexes - really only the Wilshire. So that makes the triangle suspect.

We also have - finally - a break in the up trendline and a close beneath it. A backtest at some point would be normal.
It is my belief that the market is feeling this ellipse and will prevent further significant gains of price.
Composite long term is also feeling resistance. Channel line and the 50% retrace.
VIX daily
Long term sentiment is elevated and even extreme in most instances. When viewing this sentiment in contrast to the fundamental backdrop, surely future generations will indeed say we had all gone stark raving mad.

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