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Thursday, May 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 May 2012 [Update 8:21PM]

Update 8:21PM: Top short term bullish alternate is that the market requires a severe short covering rally to the 1345-1350 range to relieve extreme oversold.  This price range is derived from the wave (i) low.  A subwave ii should therefore overlap the previous wave (i) low, thus the 1345-1350 target range.

The market is severely oversold so we must be in tune for this wave count possibility.  Think of it like the 18-19 September 2008 short covering rip-your-face-off rally that relieved extreme oversold but ultimately was the last gasp prior to a nasty panic plunge in 2008.

As stated earlier, the way Europe opens and plays out and the e-minis overnight futures should give us a clue to if there is any subwave bounces left prior to the "third of a third".
Update 5PM: VIX daily:
Is the market about to enter a "third of a third" period of intense panic selling pressure that only a third wave can bring? The wave evidence supports the notion at the end of today's trading.  The next best count is that today is a subwave i low and a subwave ii bounce will occur. Regardless, overnight futures and Europe will likely clue us in by market open tomorrow.

The market is certainly oversold but it is now a dangerous market (on both sides of the trade).  As Elliott Wave International likes to point out, an oversold market is when some of the worse selling intensity can occur. And today was not even quite a 90% down day on the NYSE. But we may see one sooner rather than later.
NYAD taking a hit:
Everything is getting dumped and in lockstep to the downside. Check out the hit the DOW Transports took.
Tomorrow will be a key day for the wave pattern.  If the market experiences a "breakaway gap" selling third of a third, we will have a clear wave marker of where we are in the overall pattern. That is an important clue that cannot be overstated.  For if we know where the middle is, we can start to project where the end of a 5 wave impulse will occur.

Most anticipate a rally on Facebook day. It would be delicious if it turns out to be quite the opposite.  If the market does bounce, depending on how hard and high, we would have to adjust the subwave ones and twos counts at the least.

Facebook is after all, is a purely social mood product.  How fitting.
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