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Friday, May 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 4 May 2012 [Update 7PM]

[Update 7PM: Ok it looks like I'll have to play whack-a-mole with banning a certain disruptive poster(s). DISCUS is not really good at weeding out trolls.  You can get back on by getting a new IP address, etc. I could implement a registered system but a determined troll can even get around this by again presenting  separate credentials each time.  And I have no time nor desire to monitor such a system, nor do I want to be screening posters I happen to believe in the freedom of speech more than not.

All I can suggest is to NOT respond to said troll(s). In fact I have considered banning certain people who regularly respond to the troll(s) rather than ignore.  Is it THAT hard to ignore?  Its like pounding your head into a wall if you respond. Yet I see the same people do it again and again expecting a different response from said troll(s).  Really folks, take away the responses, and said trolls tend to grow bored and move on.

It takes 2 to tango. Stopping tangoing with internet posters you don't know. It can be that simple.

PS : I have been in the process of buying a house. A small Cape Cod-style humble abode where I can call home. Long term rates are record low and prices have certainly eased over the last few years and timing seems right (and I'm not getting younger nor my family). I won't close for a month but I have been so busy, etc. Sorry I haven't been able to attend the blog as much as I like. But I certainly haven't lost interest. Things are just getting exciting I think!

ORIGINAL POST:
Elliott Wave International (click on links to left to access their site) said it best tonight in their short-term update:

"As the week draws to a close, we see that Tuesday's rally was a big fake out that the market threw at investors to try and shake them off the bear's trail. Market tops are often spread out over time, because the emotion that drives rallies—hope—dissipates diffusely. For instance, the Dow Jones Transportation Average made its countertrend rally high on February 3 (close), the NYSE Composite Index made its high on March 19, the NASDAQ Composite and the E-mini S&P 500 on March 27, the S&P 500 cash index on April 2, the NASDAQ 100 on April 3 and the DJIA did so on May 1. So for nearly three months the market has been in a topping process, whereby one index after another peels away from the uptrend that started last October until there is only one left, which happened to be the one that most pundits focus on, the Dow Industrials."

7 Major indexes with 7 separate highs spread out since February 3rd.  I can add to that the Russell 2000 (RUT) that topped in May 2011,  BKX (Philly bank index) that topped in April 2010, and the CRB in 2011 also, one can see that the market is having a tough time keeping itself all together.   This is bearish price action which incredibly still gives the illusion of a healthy bull market.

How to label the waves? Does it matter?  As I have been suggesting, this is a fractured market that has huge downside potential risk.  

Lets use the Wilshire5000. Did we have truncation? Or is this a proper wave (iii) down? Either interpretation is potentially deadly to longs. Again, if you have a longer timeline than say, the next few trading hours, it might be a moot point. I can say if it was truncation, the downside potential could be swift as a truncated count indicates great underlying weakness. If it is wave (iii) - again - the price action could be swift.  

The bull count imagines this is still part of some larger correction, but the evidence of the fractured market makes this less likely.
Look at the weekly. Simple negative RSI divergence, MACD signal lines crossed and MACD history bars gone negative. On the brink of a large price decline?  Coupled with 9 different indexes topping at many differing times, where would you say the bulk of investment risk lies?
NYAD count took a big hit today. Again, it did fulfill its minimum requirement of a new high. 
SPX daily. Today inflicted serious short term technical damage. Combined with the evidence of a fractured market, we give the edge to the bears.


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