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Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 June 2012

The last 2 days have shaken out the short term oversold extremes on the NYSE and NASDAQ. The wave count seems to be missing a small wave (v) of [v] of Minor 1.
Even the e-mini all-hours looks corrective.

Extreme oversold seems to have worked itself off and prices have not rebounded too sharply (yet) in an overlapping, non-impulsive up wave bounce.  That fits the small wave (iv) of [v] bounce.  For instance, TRIN, price oscillators, cumulative tick,VIX and VXN strength  up issues and up volume ratios have all rebounded and are closer to being short term overbought rather than the extreme short term oversold that Friday's selling produced.

So we'll see if we get another lower low. The wave count would look best if we did.

If I were to take a guess at the target area of wave (v) of [v], the e-minis shows a likely spot - the unclosed gap up from 12/30/11 to 1/3/12 that is still open from 1253 to 1259.75. On the SPX the area is about 1256 SPX.
On the daily, the SPX closed under its 200 day SMA by a mere fraction of a point.

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