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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 July 2012

A few days back we identified 1335 as an important support level for the S&P500 cash index.  Today's price took a small dip below that and buyers came in - for now. But yet that breach in price of 1335 SPX means that we again have wave overlap which confirms perhaps that Minor 3 down is indeed underway.

Looking over the structure of Minor 2, its best probably labeled as EWI first suggested a few days back - that wave [b] was an expanded flat.  Its a moot point, as the wave structure since the 1266 low overlaps and suggests its a countertrend move, not the start of a new run toward new highs above 1422 SPX.
E-minis also shows where support is and for now it brought in some buyers at end of day. Of course if this is Minor 3, we expect these charts to break down and fail in the not too distant future. The market seems to be working itself into a position to - perhaps dramatically - break this support.
SPX squiggle count:
The best alternate count would be that Minor 2 has one more surprise up its sleeve and will form a double zigzag for Minor 2. As long as 1335 SPX holds that is. 1335 seems to be the key level. If bears can bust that support level, I think some dramatic selling will be forth coming.

If it were to be a double zigzag, the price target would be the blue box area. The market will have to expend a lot of effort to muster a price move of that size. We all know the market is capable of such unexpected moves.  But in the bears favor, if that price move did indeed occur, it could be a last gasp to avoid the unavoidable - a necessary purging of all the bad debt and malinvestments that sooner or later must be purged.  We all know that only a receding tide will uncover all the rot. 

When the market does eventually drop whether its this year, next, or whenever, we know there will be a lot of rot exposed.  Bring it on. 

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