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Monday, July 2, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 July 2012

The SPX daily shows the wave structure and resistance.   Minor wave 2 up has retraced a hefty portion of the Minor 1 decline and time-wise ratio between Minor 1 and 2 is fairly good.  So Minor 2 could end at any time in either a simple zigzag or double zigzag scenario. I prefer to use the single zigzag scenario because a double zigzag scenario implies much higher prices. If we do have much higher prices from here, then double zigzag may indeed be the case.  Remember, the theory behind double zigzag formations is that price was lacking in the first zigzag. That was not the case here.

For instance if a single zigzag took prices in Minor 2 back to only a 38% retrace, a double zigzag makes sense in that the second may boost prices to 62%.  But in this case, the initial rebound wave structure took prices already toward the 62% Fib so we cannot say that initial price retrace was shallow.

In other words, if a first zigzag retraces the market 60% , the market doesn't need a second zigzag to retrace to merely 64%.  It may need time, but it doesn't need price necessarily.
This Wilshire chart shows a more detailed breakdown. Note that the time factor between Minor 1 and 2 is maturing into a very nice ratio.  One has to be patient. Surely if the market advances over the next few weeks in a slow steady fashion, any remaining excess bearishness will recede.

But again, the market has retraced adequate price and time for Minor 2.  However, as is always the case, the market is always right and if it requires more price and time, then we have to respect that potential.

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