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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 July 2012

Primary count is Minor 3 down.

The market knows it is nearing important support.  The bounce today at 1329 was logical. A loss of key support - say 1325 - 1333 SPX roughly - should result in the market testing 1266 pivot lows.  I don;t think 1300 is going to be much support if 1325 is taken out. Closing beneath 1325 SPX would confirm a trend change to the downside as this would result in lower lows and eliminate the ascending triangle alternate count.

SPX 30 minute. Wave (i) low or are we looking at a possible wave (iii) of [i]?  That count would result in a bearish selloff.

CPCE still remarkably complacent. It has plenty of room to soar in a Minor 3 wave down.
NYAD count seems complete. Its amazing how well this chart makes wave counts.

And according to Sentiment Trader, the market has triggered a Hindenburg Omen.

Even to a casual Elliott Waver, one can see the NDX does not display any kind of impulse since the recent 2443 June low. Its all very overlapping since and "three-ish".  And that means the trend should resume down. You can see how prices are trying to maintain a "higher low" stance, with the bulls knowing how important that is. If the count is Minor 3 down, prices won't be able to maintain. And once the pivot support breaks, there could be some nasty selling. After all, thats what Minor 3 is all about.

A reminder about the historic DOW THEORY divergence non-confirmation that has existed for quite some time.

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