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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 July 2012

It is apparent how important the support zone from the 1325 - to the lower 1330's area is to the market. Yet another bounce today from that zone.  Usually we hear about seller's exhaustion but in this case it could be buyer's exhaustion setting in at these levels (see NYAD Count for possible confirmation).  If of course this is Minor 3 down - which is the primary count - that should prove to be the case resulting in a selloff that takes markets lower in a  small panic burst.

If there is one thing I learned over the years of viewing market price and wave action is that the market will take its own time in doing things. Although it seems like forever for bears in waiting for Minor 3 to show its true self, these things cannot be rushed. Its either Minor 3 - or its not. Yes that seems simplistic and even a slightly retarded thing to say but that is the pure logic that I love about EW theory.  The wave theory is solid. Even casual wavers can see the wave 3's, etc. 

Counting and anticipating the next wave of course is where it becomes fun...and frustrating at the same time. 

The daily shows that the market tested in 2011 and fought hard in 2012 to attain prices above the 1330 SPX area.  Another loss of this price support as mentioned above is a not good for market bulls. But again, if this is Minor 3 down, it is inevitable. The wave count since the 1266 low is upward choppy and looks like overlapping corrective waves. That is basic EW theory which means sooner or later than trend should switch back to solidly down.
Squiggle count is kinda up in the air. Could be more up action to complete wave (ii) of [i] of Minor 3.  That big SPY gap down might be a target if the market can muster another buying spasm. A mere 62% retrace of the decline since the 1380 high is approx 1360 SPX which would about cover the gap down. Note the top ALT that (i) and (ii) are complete.
The best medium term bullish count is an ascending triangle argument. This is a weak pattern on the S&P500 but a more viable pattern on the Wilshire 5000. But the pattern is not strong for several reasons 1) The internal wave structures do not count well as triangle legs.  2) Price action and market internals do not work well as triangle legs. This count is a remote possibility but only if 1325 SPX pivot can hold and the 1380 mark is taken out to the upside. At this stage wave, price and technicals do not strongly support this count.

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