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Monday, July 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 July 2012

Sorry about the late posts lately. I still very much love to track the markets but I have no time at the moment to post more than what I have been  due to moving into my new home and doing immediate repairs and updates that are badly needly. I have been working 12-14 hours every day when I'm off work and after work for the past 3 weeks 6 weeks.

Today I finished up mapping "circuit breaker six", (now infamous in my house) which ended up in opening up 28 light fixtures, switches and outlets just on one circuit!  I replaced everything for the most part as a lot of stuff was bad or going bad such as fixtures and switches etc. I even changed all the wire nuts and mapped the entire circuit. Thank goodness the wiring is in great shape.

In any event, the market is just strumming along tracing out what appears to be a very bearish setup.  If the market creeps up from here, a wedge seems to be forming and the wave structure overlaps very much.  For now it still has the appearance of three waves from the low.  Time seems to be tracing out more than price at the moment. Price was more than adequate, the time factor may be catching up.
Sentiment-wise, there is nothing notable that makes you say "look at that!!". For instance via Sentiment Trader, we have just 6% bearish extremes and only 3% bullish extreme readings, some of the most flat and neutral readings I have seen in a year.. So there is nothing to there to get an edge but that probably favors the bears in the medium term.

Key technical support can be seen on the SPX chart above. A close below 1335 SPX would be bearish as it would overlap a potential wave (i) of [c].

But we cannot rule out a wedge with one more stab to the upside. Its just such a mixed bag for the short term that we can only judge what we have so far - and that appears to be an overlapping bearish wave structure forming since the 1266 low.  So patience is required.

Wilshire 5000 shows wedge potential if the market can muster some more upside soon.
NDX bearish 3 wave structure from the recent wave 1 low.

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