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Monday, September 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 September 2012

It is of my opinion that the market has formed a giant ending diagonal triangle since the 1010 SPX low in 2010.  One could also make the point that a double or even a triple zigzag has formed since the 2009 low.

The wedge shape is undeniable. Whether or not it is counted as a true ending diagonal can only be assessed if prices collapse after the end of the diagonal has played out. This is an important aspect of an ED pattern.  ED patterns signal exhaustion and the size of this potential ED pattern is certainly the biggest ever.  Therefore a subsequent price collapse would undoubtably be quite dramatic. I am predicting that is exactly what will occur. The timing will be of the market's choosing. Yet the wave pattern indicates that if this is the case, we are getting close.

With all that said, the most important thing that the wave pattern has not displayed since the 2009 low is an impulse pattern which would  consist of 5 waves from the 2009 low to some supposedly "cycle top" (and/or supercycle) sometime in the distant future. One can make the argument that this supposed 5 wave pattern is somewhere in the middle (i.e.-near the "third of a third" up) but one would have to project a wave that plays out not only many more thousands of points up in the DJIA, but one of time in which the market "bull" is only 1/2 over at best and there is another 3 years to go at least.

Fundamentals, wave structure, technicals and sentiment does not support this at this time nor is it likely.  The world's debt crisis grows ever bigger with each month.  Social mood is, despite the primary upturn of wave [2], still in an  overriding supercycle degree making its way ever lower. You can feel it.

I tell people all the time, even if the markets make a higher high above its 2007 high, I would not label this an impulse up from the 2009 low. It would be either a cycle x wave or a cycle b wave of some kind.  The results would be the same after completion: Bearish outcome.

Squiggles could be over or nearly so.

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