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Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 September 2012

The primary count is that the market is experiencing a giant ending diagonal triangle - otherwise known as a rising bearish wedge.   A reversal under the upper wedgeline is likely imminent. The reason this count is forefront is  a) internal wave structures of the ending diagonal are not impuslive and have an "A-B-C" look for each wave up.  b) sentiment indicators are quite extreme on less than robust internal market measures indicating an imment reversal and a major market top.

Primary count is the wedge which is exhausting:


Sentiment measures are reaching extreme. For instance EWI reported $ dollar Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) was down to a mere 7% Friday night. Sentiment Trader's site indicated a 40% extreme bullish versus 0% bearish depsite the pullback since Friday.  

The Alt count is that a double zigzag is in play. There are many variations on where we could be within wave (C) of the final zigzag [Y].   But again, sentiment measures suggest we may to close to a market top.

Count suggests wave (1) was the extended wave and therefore wave (3) and (5) would be about equal. Still negative divergence on the OBV.

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