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Monday, September 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 September 2012

Is the market exhausting or consolidating? (or consolidating for the last time prior to exhaustion) Its the key question(s). The line of demarcation seems to be the "QE3" Day and the upper wedgeline.

Price action has been stubborn. 5 out of the last 6 days have been down days for the S&P500. Yet prices are still well above QE3 day.  Stubbonr down, yet stubborn above QE3 day. The daily candle pattern suggests and internal bull/bear battle is indeed playing out.  Note the high volume on Friday. Yes it was options expiry day but still, big churn produced a red candle and no new high on the SPX.
Yet price action is not yet impulsive to the downside.

Triangulating? I would lean toward not, however we cannot label any sure impulses downward either. So edge = bulls for the near term.
Again the top two counts are the SPX bearish rising wedge ending diagonal trinangle:
And the double zigzag cycle (likely) wave as shown on the DJIA in which price and time are not yet finished.
How long can the wedge count be considered a wedge? I estimated about a week it can remain above the upper wedgeline before succumbing to exhaustion.  However it was suggested that prices would have to maintain under 1474 which they have. So prices have been muted and yet time above the wedgeline is growing every day.   Since the wedge is over 2 years in the making, we can allow for the market to be above the wedgeline and give it leeway.

I still favor the whole thing being resolved in one great price collapse that infers a rising wedge is indeed something to take notice upon.

Even if a prolonged count of ever more pushes plays out in the next few weeks or so of a double zigzag as shown on the DJIA above, it is suggested that that too will result in a price retreat of a great decline. For if not Primary wave [3] down, then cycle wave c proper will ensue. Both should be equally bearish events.
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