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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 October 2012

Since the 1474 high, despite the loss of prices the wave structure has not been impulsive to the downside which suggests large corrective waves are in play. Usually it takes a 5 wave impulsive pattern to signal a trend change.  We have not had that yet.

However, there could be a leading expanding diagonal triangle in the making (which is our primary count) which was explained in yesterday's update.  We have to be patient with it. I assume since waves i and iii of the proposed diagonal triangle were not impulsive, I'd have to assume wave v will not be impulsive either and will instead take on an [A][B][C] look just as waves i and iii have.

Could be yet another test of the downsloping trendline formed since the 1474 high which has 4 solid hits including the price peak.

Our daily candle chart again shows the interaction of prices with the upper wedgeline and QE3 Day Support.  Market bulls are trying to maintain QE3 day support and get above the upper wedgeline - and now add the downsloping trendline.  So we have some forces of support/resistance in play at this range.  The winner will determine if new highs above 1474 are forthcoming or a break of QE3 day support and a fallback to probably at least 1400-1414 range for starters.

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