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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 October 2012

E-minis, all-hours, may show 5 waves down from the recent peak.  Forms nicely in a channel. This would imply a bounce is due. Pretty nice triangle for wave iv and yes wave v did barely make a lower low.
Squiggle count is again tricky. The high TRIN readings recorded yesterday worked off the extreme oversold today despite the overall down day.  That may be a warning sign that things could get ugly for prices. If oversold gets worked off in a decline, the odds of more decline increase.

Again the point here is that if this is a third wave, and a rising bearish wedge is resolving to the downside, picking subwave bounces can be downright maddening.  We have seen some nasty waterfall declines in the past few years. The 2010 flash crash and the 2011 summer declines are 2 instances.

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