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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 December 2012

A small five waves down from the recent Minute [ii] peak.

There is no doubt that social mood long term is still very much trending negative. Congress - reflecting the ultimate expression for long term public consensus and mood - is at total gridlock.  When social mood was better, even in 2011, deals were able to be made. I don't know if a "fiscal cliff" deal will be made before the new year or not, but either way, things are rancorous and reflective of a very negative long term trend that is not anywhere near bottoming out.

In any event, there will be contraction eventually.  Either simple mathematics will force it or social mood will reign in the debt spending.  

Its taken 4 years since the 2009 low for Congress to catch up with the public in negative long term expression.  As Prechter likes to point out, Congress (or government in general) is that last group to be overtaken by mood. Its the ultimate consensus group after all.

So the fact that our representatives are finally expressing a dour mood means we are somewhere near a major turning point. And that would be negative.  Things can get out of control quickly when mood is sour at all levels of society. It finally seems the last consensus group - being the US government - is now in lockstep with a simmering society.

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