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Friday, November 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 November 2012

The primary count is Minute [ii] up. The best form so far would likely be a double zigzag:
Squiggle count:
Zweig Breadth thrust failed.  That's good for bears medium to long term.

E-minis


Thursday, November 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 November 2012

1 Day left to trigger a Zweig Breadth Thrust or not. We'll be watching this closely.


E-minis


Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 November 2012

A decent squiggle count for Minute [ii] is emerging and the best count may be a double zigzag. Using the Wilshire5000 for superior form:
Hourly chart:

E-minis


Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 November 2012

Outlook hasn't changed. Best count is Minute wave [ii] up is playing out.  Prices are struggling with the backtest of the 2+ year wedge.  The target for Minute [ii] would take the overall shape of a three wave affair and it would probably be pronounced on a daily chart and look like a zigzag at that scale.

Based on that synopsis, we have not yet had a pronounced (b) wave likley yet.  SO we look for the (b)  of [ii] wave - which may be complex - and then the final wave toward Minute [ii] target.

Targets for Minute [ii] could be: 1) 50 DMA currently at 1424.  2) filling the large open SPY gap which is approx 1430ish SPX  3) another backtest of the wedge somewhere in the same price range. Or a combination of all three.

E-minis


Monday, November 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 November 2012

The move up from the recent low could count well as a zigzag to the 50% retrace.  This may or may not be sufficient in price.  My guess is probably not since prices have made it above 1400 SPX and wave two's can retrace deep.

So the best short term outlook might be to look for some complex waves  to develop in an (x) wave then a second zigzag taking prices likely higher would fill the SPY gap. This is a best guess on how Minute [ii] would play out.
Of course we may be looking for more up to finish a simple impulse from the recent low. Meaning that instead of a zigzag up we'll have a simple 5 waves of (a) of [ii] and then a (b) wave pullback:
Both of those counts imply the same thing over the long run.

For those of you on Zweig Breadth Thrust watch, the market has four trading days left to make it above the red line (approx .61) on this indicator shown using the DJIA:

Sunday, November 25, 2012

E-minis

Yes, despite the two huge up days on low holiday volume last week, the market has retraced 50% from its peak. 

Friday, November 23, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 November 2012

Low volume post holiday. The tape got squeezed for all it was worth.

SPY chart tells the story: Its the story of gaps.
At the 50% Fib of the total decline
The market is very close to triggering the third Zweig Breadth Thrust since the 2009 low.  The other two are highlighted in Blue. These were "kickoff" thrusts of major legs up.  If another triggers, there is an excellent chance of new market highs above 1474 SPX. I don't make these rules folks, the market does.

We'll see how Monday shakes out. The market is very short term overbought as it is.
However the VIX bear signal has been triggered. Close back inside the BB.


Thursday, November 22, 2012

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 November 2012

Could be near the top of wave (a) of Minute [ii] up.  Its in a cluster of 38% Fib retraces.

E-minis


Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 November 2012

Not yet at the 38% retracement. If this is a wave two, then we can expect 50-62% or even higher.
Seeking to confirm wave (a) of [ii] specifically:

E-minis


Monday, November 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 November 2012

There goes the oversold rally.  90% up day probably means a wave two of either Minute or Minor degree is underway.  For now we'll call it a Minute [ii].
Spy gap:
Vix already ahs closed beneath is BB. Bear setup has been set. A close back inside would be the trigger.


Sunday, November 18, 2012

Friday, November 16, 2012

Market is oversold. Signs of buying interest are coming into the market.

Volume today indicates this could be a short term low. Minute [i] low? Minor 1 low?  Monday will clarify things more.

E-minis


Thursday, November 15, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 November 2012

Count remains downward in direction. Primary count is that Minor 1 is continuing its journey.
Sentiment: Obviously this data is a few days old (14 November it came out) but the latest Investor's Intelligence data bear % is certainly not extreme. In fact its still elevated on the bullish side:

E-minis


Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 November 2012

It appears the "third of a third" wave down is playing out.  The intensifying market internals matches that outlook. Today's selling pressure was 92% decliners vs advancers on the NYSE and down volume ratio was 89%.  A pretty solid 90% down day overall.
Another look at the rising bearish wedge.  Minor wave 1 down projects to probably at least 1266 SPX. A this point I would say 1266 is the next best support available.

Collapsing prices post rising bearish wedge suggest that Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down will end at sub 1000 SPX.

E-minis


Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 November 2012

Maintaining the primary count:
Channels:
Another solid close under the 200 DMA as the Bollinger Bands get stretched wider and wider.
NASDAQ:
CPCE:

E-minis


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Monday, November 12, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 November 2012

I wouldn't be surprised if the market takes a shot at regaining 1400 resistance but it doesn't have to. If it did, it would still fit our series of 1's and 2's as the third wave two before the bottom drops out in a "third of a third" wave down.

Primary count is a series of one's and two's. The Breadth Thrust indicator shown on the DJIA chart below supports this count.
Yet the DJIA count may be suggesting a bounce of bigger size and perhaps duration.  Of course if (ii) turns out to be a truncated top (as EWI suggest), then this count is out altogether. Could be a red herring.
And the Nasdaq100 count may suggest something else again. But as nice as this count is, its nothing to hang your hat on as its only a subindex.
 Yet price action is certainly not in the bulls favor. This Wilshire channel chart shows what I mean:
And overall, our favorite Breadth Thrust Indicator is not yet oversold nor is there any positive divergence suggesting a rebound.  This indicator favors the primary count of a series of 1's and 2's and the market has not quite yet had its "third of a third" wave.

Doesn't mean prices won't rebound, its just saying that this indicator is not flashing a bull signal nor is it oversold and, in theory, may agree with the series of ones and twos down.

Additionally be wary of the lower wedgeline break.