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Monday, March 25, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 March 2013

If the past 13 years has been an expanding triangle, the rally since 2009 would be labeled primary [D] wave.  "D" waves are usually the most complex wave in a triangle and this one probably fits that description as there is a lot of overlap. There is certainly more of a "three" wave look about it rather than an impulse which is the main evidence.

D waves are dangerous waves, particularly in an expanding triangle. For what comes next is the longest wave = the "E" wave.  E waves are almost never complex in a triangle. They are typically fast and furious. This would be one huge [E] wave taking back the entire price rise of wave [D} and then some.

It can be theorized that D waves are largely built on false hopes and extremely shaky economic foundations  Is there any doubt that is the case here concerning the economic foundation?

Regardless, this wave has not yet reached the upper trendline. Its about the same in both log and non-log scale so only the log scale is shown.   Its not required to meet the upper trendline, but at this point would it surprise anyone if it did?  I suppose not.

The [D] Wave count is not the primary count.  But the expanding pattern is there all the same. It would take a significant "overthrow" up the upper trendline to invalidate an expanding pattern.
Weekly:
New Intraday high. Pattern will complete when it completes. That's all we can really say.

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