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Monday, April 1, 2013

Elliot Wave Update ~ 1 April 2013

The top trendline of a long-term pattern has been touched. If this is a primary (or cycle) wave [D] of a Supercycle expanding triangle pattern (not the primary count but the pattern still fits for the time being), it has been a somewhat complex wave (and difficult to count per EW guidelines)

EW theory calls for alternation between complex and simple patterns as a strong guideline.

1990's to 2000 peak:  Sharp, simple impulse
2000 - 2002/03 lows: Complex pullback
2003- 2007 rise: Simple, yet somewhat complex rise (elements of both)
2007 - 2009 dropoff: Simple pattern.
2009 - 2013: Complex pattern with simple elements in the subwaves

The next wave down should be largely a simple affair which of course would probably catch a majority off guard.  If its a cycle 'c' wave of a flat/expanded Supercycle flat, then we are looking for a huge 5 primary waves down. And that should form a fairly simple impulse pattern.

Best count per EW guidelines since the 2009 low:
There are enough waves in place to consider the near term pattern of 5 waves up since the November pivot low, however....
Perhaps an ending diagonal triangle is playing out the last many weeks which suggests one more "a-b-c" up is required to finish it as per official EW counting guidelines.

A solid break under today's low would nullify this count below and indicate a likely bear trend is again in place for the near term.
VIX has some unfilled gaps.

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