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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Updare ~ 18 April 2013

From a technical standpoint, major support is being tested:

From a "channeling" standpoint, there exists a very nicely forming "base channel".  If this base channel is broken through , selling should accelerate.

So from a support standpoint - horizontal and channeling technique - there is reason to believe some panic selling is nearing in a "third of a third" wave down.

If the market is working itself lower in a large impulse pattern, do we see a bounce prior to breaking of support shelf mentioned above?

However, as I said last night, the squiggles will work themselves out. We have a clear major support shelf and a clear "base" channel developing.  All we can logically assume is that if prices break underneath both, then we likely will see our "third of a third" at "Minute" wave degree.

I can also see a count scenario where prices bounce back toward the upper blue channel line but I am too lazy too chart it.  So again, to repeat, all we can really say is that there hasn't yet been any real panic selling at the Minute []  wave level. Thus no (3) of [iii] just yet.

However the evidence shows where we might see that third of a third will occur - i.e - when the base channel and major horizontal support shelf breaks which resides very close.

Again the overall long term count supposes that cycle wave b has topped.  Do I care if the market goes and makes a new high? Not really.  As this point, who really cares?  S&P has set records.  There really is no "upside surprise" ability left if you ask me even if the market were to go up 1000 Dow points straight from here starting tomorrow. There exists the biggest disconnect from market prices from the reality of financial conditions of the entire world. We are living in historic times.

Yesterday's Investor's Intelligence report via Sentiment Trader. Sentiment is obviously still quite elevated.  It takes declining prices to turn the mood sour again. The downside potential is great.

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