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Thursday, April 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 April 2013

There is a case to be made that the market, having cleared practically all known previous resistance, has entered a possible "parabolic" phase of things.  Of course if that happens, once that would run its course, we are looking at a historic market crash (ala Bitcoin) The SPX chart below gives you an idea.

A break (or an adherence to) of the blue curved upwards line is what we'll be looking for.   If the market obeys the curve and lunges toward the upper parallel channel line,  that limit is approximately 1674 in around 1 more month of time frame which would make this one hellava extended bubble market if that happens.  However, if we are entering a true parabolic stage, then that's not an unreasonable assumption because that's the way parabolic endings occur.

Of course a downward break in the blue upwards curve is bearish.  We are not near that point just yet but be on the watch.
1570 may be the "key marker" day candle.  A close beneath that would be starters for the bearish case.  

The logical case of technical developments leads us to conclude the following statement: If one believes that the market intends to keep a parabolic rise, then 1570 will not be closed under until the rise has peaked and fallen again through it. So a close under 1570 must be the start for the bearish case.

Therefore the situation is ultimately an ironic paradox as the market needs to keep going up in order to maintain momentum. The paradox is that of course if it does keep going up in a parabolic fashion, it will ensure its own bearish rapid demise because parabolic rises never end well once they  stop rising and break down.

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