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Monday, April 15, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 April 2013

Primary count is that cycle wave b has topped out at 1597.  Cycle wave c of supercycle wave (a) would consist of 5 primary waves down.   The market would therefore be in the early stages of Primary [1] of c. Yes there eventually would be a  P3.
Local count:
Support on gold was smashed on record volume.
And yeah, , my long-standing target of sub- $500 for cycle wave II is still the projection. Thats where the "virgin space" resides.

Sentiment:
True Elliott Wavers base many things on sentiment readings both long, medium and short. After all, EW theory is a social mood theory at heart and social mood is sentiment at its most basic.  This is why we pay so much attention to sentiment data. When sentiment gets too extreme one way or another expect social mood (hence stock prices) to go the opposite. Its Nature's Way of not letting things get out of hand on both the upside and downside.   Mass greed (peak) needs correction. Mass dire mood (trough) needs correction. Its what keeps mankind in check. At very large wave degrees, the movements are also huge and potentially deadly. We are likely riding just such a Supercycle (and on a larger scale - Grand Supercycle) wave for the past 13 years.

There is a situation where prices do not rebound on massive negative sentiment. 

Long time readers of this blog have heard me spoken of the "Ponzi sentiment" mentality. Basically this is where sentiment is extreme negative yet prices still sell.  This is basically the point where you realize you are caught in a massive fraud. So despite extreme negative mood in a Ponzi mentality, prices do not rebound, they collapse.

There is another aspect of this theorem that has come to light in recent weeks. Its the "bank run" (Cyprus) mentality. This is where despite massive negative mood, prices will fall and liquidity will dry up. There is no "upside surprise" to a bank run usually nor a Ponzi scheme that has come to light.

Now I am not saying the market is currently experiencing this just yet. However I am saying that for cycle wave c to do all its glorious damage in prices that is projected over the next few years, as some point the Ponzi mentality will come into play on a large scale perhaps and at many stages. We perhaps will see this glimpsed also in things such as gold.

I love gold. I think its real money. But unfortunately the paper market is a massive overleveraged (100 - 1?) fraud.   There is nowhere near enough real gold backing all that paper. And how that affects "real" prices in gold will ultimately be extremely volatile.  I think your seeing some of that today. In the end the market will figure things out.  In EW terms, I project a low to be sub $500 in the years to come. Then once the financial  system "resets", I think you'll see a great inflation and Gold will follow accordingly.

But for now, a great "deflation" must occur first. The credit-based world must deflate first. This is what has always happened in a great credit bubble. Its never failed to deflate. This time will be no different. And this bubble is so big, we will surely say to ourselves in many years time from now: "what the hell were we thinking?"






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