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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 April 2013

Last night's squiggle count had Minuette wave (iii) low and expecting a weak Minuette wave (iv) rebound before Minuette (v) takes the market lower forming the larger Minute wave [i] low.  That count is looking suspect because of the sharpness of today's price rebound and a small intraday ending diagonal at yesterday's price low.

Yesterday's low probably counts better as Minute [i] wave low.  There was a small ending diagonal at yesterday's close which actually I should have heeded as a possible warning to a violent rebound in the opposite direction (up) which did indeed occur today. The violent rebound confirms yesterday's small ED pattern.

ED patterns rarely, if ever, occur on any size wave three's.  This is because typically wave three's are the strongest and wave threes (no matter what degree) shouldn't exhibit any non-impulsive moves within its substructure.

Therefore yesterday's low was unlikely to be wave (iii) low.
The current primary count.

There is much going for this count.
1) "virgin space" in the middle of wave three in price.
2) wave (iii) a Fibonacci 1.618 times wave (i)
3) wave (v) equals wave (i) more or less
4) ending diagonal finishes at the low.

As a side note, I may have the wave degree labels one degree too high.  But I'll correct that if need be in later updates. Its the waves structure that matters at the moment. And although it does not channel well, the sub-waves fit very neatly into 5 wave pattern down from 1597 peak.
My mistake for overlooking the possible ED pattern yesterday.
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