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Monday, April 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 April 2013

Primary count is that the current rise is Minute wave [ii] of Minor wave 1 down.

Here is a best guess squiggle count based on time and price Fibonacci ratio levels.  There has been almost a 50% retrace already which puts this wave count firmly in the Minute [ii] camp:
And a bigger picture shows the market is likely making a head and shoulders topping pattern at Minute degree:
A while back I stated that CMG would make a potential excellent short at the $352 -$370 range while noting that $362 was the 61.8% Fib retracement level.

CMG is now back from oversold on the weekly time scale to overbought. The wave pattern seems ripe for a decline again (although if the gap down closes we are looking at a run-up toward $400 first). Note that recent volume to the upside was decent, but that it was dwarfed by the downside volume from its peak.

The open gap down runs up to around $400.  I suppose that's the ultimate target for CMG bulls is to close that gap as best they can for revenge.
Long time since I showed oil. But that's because it has been in a meandering pattern for as long as gold was. The descending pattern may be distributive.  Lower highs describes this pattern.

If oil can get a higher high (which it has been unable to do for 2 years), then we can maybe we can get bullish. But until then, prices are a classic strong hands to weak hands pattern.
The 6 month yield. I contend this count is the key to the entire Ponzi scheme. Should it break resistance to the upside, things will unravel for the economy and the FED very rapidly.  Remember, short terms rates are set by the market not the Fed. The Fed follows the market and not vice versa. Just ask Greenspan who on several occasions has casually talked about how the market actually is in control of rates and that the Fed reacts to that.

(This is why the Fed's Volcker in the early 1980's did not "control" or "had guts" (as the media credit him for) to raise rates. The market forced him to so so. Its a media myth that attributes much to Volker but a rising social mood in the early 1980's allows us to look back on Volker in a good light no mattered what the facts were.)

If the 6 month rises, you can be sure the 3 month yield will rise and you can be sure the Fed will raise interest rates whether they like it or not.

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