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Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 June 2013

After rallying smartly from a ridiculous opening drop, the market couldn't manage to close the open gap down created this morning. It did go green briefly on the DJIA, but overall breadth and up volume was weak after a horrendous opening.  The bears won the day and price action is more suspect for bulls than not.

The daily chart below is instructive of the overall count since the November low. Time-wise, its seems "right" to label the degree as Intermediate (C). Structure-wise all the subwaves are there and accounted for. We even experienced an "overthrow" of the upper channel line at the end and if you follow any sentiment data points such as EWI, Sentiment Trader, or any other sentiment (Trade-Futures's DSI or II bull ratio),  you'll know we have reached multi-year extremes on most in conjunction with the overthrow.

But now prices are back to the bottom of the channel which resulted in a big, quick oversold bounce.

The market is in danger of losing the lower channel line and hence losing 1600 support. A wave [iii] down supposes exactly that should happen.  The precise timing is as always, the tricky part.  

So we'll slap a Minute [i] and [ii] up there and see what comes about.

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